Arabic version: انخفاض أسعار النفط مع استمرار الغموض حول صفقة السلام بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران

Oil prices have fallen sharply as tentative hopes for a deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran emerge. Brent crude, the primary benchmark for global oil prices, fell about 5 percent on Sunday as US President Donald Trump gave mixed signals on the prospects for a permanent end to the conflict. According to Al Jazeera, Brent futures for July stood at $98.47 a barrel as of 01:05 GMT, down about 9 percent from a month ago but still up by more than a third compared with before the start of the war.

Japan’s benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, surged more than 3 percent in morning trading, hitting an all-time high after closing at a record peak on Friday. Trump’s remarks came after he raised hopes for a breakthrough on Saturday by announcing that a deal had been “largely negotiated,” with terms including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Trump also stated that he had instructed officials “not to rush into a deal,” emphasizing the need for careful negotiations. Senior oil market analyst June Goh noted that despite the negotiations, the underlying situation remains unchanged, with 10-11 million barrels of crude oil still shut-in daily due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are anticipating a significant increase in oil supply once a deal is finalized, with estimates suggesting that around 100 million barrels could flow from stranded ships. Nonetheless, Goh indicated that it may take three to six months to return to normal production levels, including bringing refineries back online. The US blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect until an agreement is reached and certified.