Arabic version: لجنة تداول السلع الآجلة تراجع عقود أسواق التنبؤ الخاصة بذكر الكلمات
According to Cnbc, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an internal review of “mention markets” offered by prediction platforms. These contracts allow traders to speculate on whether particular words will be used in speeches, corporate earnings calls or television broadcasts. People familiar with the matter said the regulator first alerted Kalshi several weeks ago.
Kalshi removed sports-related mention markets around the time it was notified of the review, one person familiar with the situation said. It remains unclear whether the inquiry covers only sports-related contracts or mention markets across all topics. Kalshi and the CFTC declined to comment. Polymarket does not offer mention markets on its CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, though it offers them overseas.
Mention markets generated about $3.3 million in trading volume on Kalshi last month, according to Dune Analytics. Critics say such markets can be easily manipulated by a single person. In July, the CFTC said it was investigating a former teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who allegedly made $90,000 in profits by betting on the content of Trump’s speeches. Kalshi’s head of market operations, Arjun Sawai, said in a public comment letter that the markets add a regulated, transparent and surveilled element to existing incentives.
The review comes before the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee is scheduled to discuss prediction markets, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency on Aug. 20. The agency has also sued nine states over its claimed exclusive jurisdiction to regulate event contracts, while warning platforms against broadly worded self-certified contracts and casino-style odds displays. Separately, a Washington state judge blocked several Kalshi markets, including mention markets, and said the company was likely violating state law. The Financial Times also reported that JPMorgan cut off Polymarket from financial services last October over regulatory concerns; Polymarket said it maintains a close, active relationship with the bank.
