Arabic version: تراجع إقراض المستثمرين مع انحسار المشترين لأول منزل أيضاً
According to SBS News, Australian Bureau of Statistics lending data shows investor loans fell 8.6 per cent in the June quarter, the biggest decline since September 2022. First-home buyer loans also declined, falling 2.9 per cent, raising questions about whether fewer investors will create more opportunities for people entering the market.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the figures as an “encouraging sign” that Labor’s planned changes to negative gearing and the capital gains discount were shifting the market towards first-home buyers. The changes were announced in the May budget but are not due to formally take effect until 1 July 2027, meaning the latest lending decline reflects the reaction to their announcement rather than their operation.
Independent property researcher Cameron Kusher said the investor pullback was a typical knee-jerk response to policy changes. CBA and NAB each reported a 15 per cent fall in mortgage applications last quarter, while Westpac reported a 20 per cent fall. Kusher expects the next quarterly figures, which will cover a full three months in the new environment, to offer a clearer indication of investor behaviour.
Experts said investors may be changing their approach rather than abandoning residential property. Real Estate Group economist Luc Redman said early evidence suggested more investor enquiries for units with higher yields and lower entry prices, rather than houses sought for capital growth. Tasmania and the ACT were the only jurisdictions without declines in investor lending, which Kusher said could indicate interest in properties offering stronger rental returns relative to purchase price.
Kusher cautioned that first-home buyers do not automatically replace investors, who account for about 40 per cent of the residential market. He said many renters may not be able to buy, while first-home buyers may also be waiting to see how the market develops. Kusher said reduced new investment could eventually tighten rental supply and give landlords more scope to raise rents, although he said there was no evidence of that occurring yet.
