Arabic version: البنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي يحذّر من مخاطر الذكاء الاصطناعي وسوق السندات

According to ABC News, the Reserve Bank of Australia sees the main risks to financial stability coming from overseas rather than from the domestic housing downturn. Its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Review was released two days after the bank lifted the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent.

The RBA said fewer than 2 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupier mortgage borrowers had a cash-flow shortfall at the end of June. It expects the proportion may rise to 2 per cent or slightly above in coming months, but said the median borrower has offset and/or redraw buffers covering more than a year of scheduled repayments at current rates.

The central bank estimated that less than 1 per cent of borrowers were in negative equity. It said even a 20 per cent fall in house prices would put about 5 per cent of mortgages into negative equity. Under a modelled severe downturn, with unemployment at 6.3 per cent, inflation near 7 per cent and a 5.6 per cent cash rate, it estimated 5 per cent of borrowers would face a higher risk of default.

Internationally, the RBA warned that threats to financial stability were mounting. It pointed to risks from AI investment, including opaque off-balance-sheet financing for data centres and “circular financing” involving chipmakers and neocloud firms. It also highlighted higher government bond yields and US hedge-fund repo debt exceeding $US3 trillion, warning of greater volatility and a potentially disruptive sell-off in core bond markets. The next RBA Monetary Policy Board rate decision is due on November 3.