Arabic version: تقرير وظائف أكتوبر يُتوقع أن يُظهر توظيفًا متواضعًا
According to Cnbc, economists expect the October nonfarm payrolls report to show growth of 59,000 jobs when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the data Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Dow Jones consensus estimate would be a slight increase from September’s 29,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%.
The expected result would extend a period of sparse payroll growth. From January 2025 through September 2026, payroll gains averaged 35,000 a month. Only one month in that span recorded gains above 200,000, while seven months saw job losses. Even so, the unemployment rate has risen only 0.2 percentage point during the slowdown.
A shrinking labor force has reduced the number of jobs needed to keep unemployment steady. The labor force contracted by 434,000 during the period and has declined by just shy of 1 million since September 2025. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.8%, down 0.8 percentage point. ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud cited an aging workforce, low birth rates and lower immigration as factors reducing the available workforce.
Other indicators have sent mixed signals. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 last week, their lowest level since July and near the lowest level since 1969. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September, and quits reached 3.36 million, the highest level in a year and a half. However, the number of workers unemployed for more than 25 weeks has increased by 495,000 since January 2025, while average unemployment duration reached 24.8 weeks through September.
