Arabic version: فوز الديمقراطيين يغيّر توقعات أسعار الفائدة

According to Cnbc, Democrats’ victory in both chambers of the U.S. Congress initially raised market hopes for a deal to end the Iran war, pushing down oil prices and potentially easing inflation and interest-rate pressures.

ICE Brent crude fell 8.7% on Wednesday, closing below $100 a barrel for the first time since September. Investors linked the move to expectations that President Donald Trump could be more inclined to seek an agreement that might restore Gulf refinery capacity and improve export conditions.

Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley said a resolution in the Middle East could bring oil prices down, an issue for the Federal Reserve and inflation. Bank of America rates strategist Ralph Axel said higher oil prices over the next three to six months would likely mean significantly higher interest rates in the U.S., particularly in the U.K. and Germany.

Analysts cautioned that an end to the conflict is not assured. Dan Coatsworth of AJ Bell said oil had begun climbing again and interest-rate expectations had not radically changed from pre-election levels. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said a peace process would not immediately resolve pressures from Strait of Hormuz obstructions, limited refining capacity and low European gas storage.

The longer-term outlook also depends on U.S. fiscal policy and investment. Jane Foley of Rabobank said it was too early to draw firm conclusions on rates, while Daniel Clifton of Baird Strategas warned that tighter fiscal policy, rate increases and slower AI capital spending could produce a mid-cycle slowdown in 2027.