The closing days of July have seen the Middle East plunge into heightened turmoil, not due to the scorching summer heat, but owing to a significant escalation in regional conflict. Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States, where he addressed Congress and met with high-ranking officials, speculation arose that Israel had received a tacit “green light” to initiate full-scale military action against Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group.
On July 27, tragedy struck in the village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where a rocket landed on a soccer field, killing twelve children and injuring sixty others. Netanyahu cut short his US visit and returned to Israel, where official statements promptly accused Hezbollah of launching the rocket, allegedly of Iranian manufacture. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) vowed a powerful response. Hezbollah, however, denied involvement, and Lebanese authorities suggested the rocket was actually an Israeli air defense missile. Iran’s Foreign Ministry labeled the incident a “staged drama,” underscoring the ambiguity and complexity surrounding the attack.
On the evening of July 30, the IDF executed a strike on Beirut’s outskirts, targeting Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah military leader purportedly responsible for the Majdal Shams attack. The operation resulted in over seventy-five injuries and approximately ten fatalities. Such strikes on Beirut are not unprecedented; earlier this year, an Israeli attack claimed the life of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau. While Shukr’s assassination intensified tensions, it did not seem likely to trigger a full-scale conflict between Lebanon and Israel.
The situation took a dramatic turn on the night of July 31, with the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Haniyeh had traveled to Iran for the inauguration of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian and a meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Hamas officials confirmed Haniyeh’s death, attributing it to a “treacherous Zionist raid” on his residence. This marked a significant escalation, as Haniyeh was a crucial negotiator in ceasefire talks involving multiple parties, including the US, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and Hamas. The attack on Iranian soil further complicated matters, compelling Tehran to respond to maintain its reputation and deter future incidents.
The assassination of Haniyeh elicited widespread condemnation. Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian, denounced the killing, branding Israel a “criminal and terrorist regime” and promising severe repercussions. Russia described the act as an unacceptable political assassination that jeopardizes ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hezbollah expressed condolences, with Abbas calling for Palestinian unity. Yemen’s Houthi leader termed it a crime undermining regional peace, while China and Egypt voiced concerns over potential destabilization. Qatar’s prime minister, who had mediated negotiations, noted the assassination’s detrimental impact on the talks. Turkey also condemned the attack, accusing Israel of attempting to broaden the conflict’s scope.
The Israeli government’s staunch stance against anti-Israeli forces in the region, particularly the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ is driven by several factors. Primarily, it aims to mitigate threats to national security. Secondly, it bolsters Netanyahu’s administration, which faces internal political crises and public dissatisfaction. Thirdly, it underscores the Israeli far-right’s determination to eliminate the Palestinian resistance movement and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. On July 18, the Knesset overwhelmingly voted against the creation of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, citing it as a threat to Israel’s existence and regional stability.
The agreement reached among Palestinian factions in Beijing to form a national unity government, with Hamas playing a significant role, further fueled Netanyahu’s aggressive posture. The assassination of Haniyeh can be seen as retribution for the Palestinians’ success in overcoming resistance to Hamas’ participation in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) structures. By eliminating Haniyeh, Israel sent a clear message to Palestinian groups about the consequences of their political maneuvers.
While Netanyahu may not have received explicit US approval for a campaign in Lebanon, he appears intent on provoking Iran and Hezbollah into actions that could justify an Israeli invasion. Haniyeh’s assassination exacerbates tensions in Lebanon, particularly in light of the recent Israeli strike on Beirut and the death of Fuad Shukr. This scenario likely leads to coordinated retaliatory actions by Hezbollah and Iran, heightening the risk of clashes with Israeli forces.
The US finds itself in a precarious position. It must continue providing military aid to Israel, despite the inability to officially condemn the assassination. Previously, the US had suggested the IDF focus on eliminating Hamas leaders rather than engaging in widespread bombardment in Gaza. However, this situation endangers American forces in the region, as responsibility for Haniyeh’s death could also be attributed to the US. Groups within the ‘Axis of Resistance’ may resume attacks on American military installations, escalating the conflict further.
Haniyeh’s assassination also undermines ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. Prior to his death, there were signs of progress towards an agreement to end the conflict, which has caused a humanitarian crisis and claimed 40,000 lives. Haniyeh’s active participation in these negotiations was crucial, but Israel’s new conditions, deemed unacceptable by Palestinians, indicate Netanyahu’s preference for escalation over peace. This approach likely halts ceasefire discussions and intensifies Palestinian resistance.
Iran, facing the challenge of an attack on its ally’s leader in Tehran, must respond to maintain its credibility. The assassination has already provoked a strong reaction, with the Supreme National Security Council convening an emergency meeting and promising retaliatory actions from Iran-supported groups. Israel’s ability to target leaders in Iran presents a serious challenge, prompting a review of security measures.
Despite Haniyeh’s death, significant changes within Hamas are unlikely. Leaders like Musa Abu Marzouk, Khaled Mashaal, Basem Naim, Hussam Badran, and Yahya Sinwar remain, and Khaled Mashaal may succeed Haniyeh. Israel’s forceful measures will likely lead to further radicalization of Hamas and other PLO movements, demonstrating the Israeli government’s refusal to entertain the idea of a Palestinian state.
The Middle East faces a new level of conflict, with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh marking a critical escalation. This incident not only threatens ceasefire negotiations but also challenges Iran, significantly increasing the risk of further regional conflict. The international community’s condemnation contrasts with internal political motives that favor escalation over peace. In this volatile situation, all parties must strive to avoid full-scale war, which could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.
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