Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam and the failure of the so-called peace summit in Switzerland, these two issues have generated increased concern among key policymakers in the Biden administration. There are visible signs of a decline in the West-centered world order, where the US may no longer retain its fantasy of being the lord of the universe. Prior to Putin’s North Korea trip, leading analysts and Western media viewed it as a mere “courtesy visit”. Now, they have started realizing that their prime enemy, the Russian president, is successfully moving towards building a solid strategic partnership with countries in the Global South.
In his article in North Korea’s leading and most influential newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, President Putin signaled the prospect of further strengthening relations between Moscow and Pyongyang. He saw this as the beginning of a new world order based on justice, opposing the US model that, under the pretense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, dictated that nations remain subservient to Washington’s interests.
The key provision in the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership treaty, which is also seen by many as a military pact, clearly states that if one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack by one or several countries, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance with all the means at its disposal. South Korea or Japan should not worry about this provision, as according to President Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, this agreement is not directed against any third country. It will be applicable only to those nations which attack Russia or North Korea.
We also need to consider Article 3 of this agreement, which clearly states that “in the event of an immediate threat of an act of armed aggression against one of the parties, the parties, at the request of one of the parties, shall immediately use bilateral channels for consultations in order to coordinate their positions and agree on possible practical measures to assist each other to help eliminate the emerging threat”.
One key point that needs to be mentioned here is that, according to media reports, United States intelligence officials believe President Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for arms for his war in Ukraine. Citing six senior US officials, a US news network said the Biden administration was concerned Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine capable of launching a nuclear-armed missile.
Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “We are of course also concerned about the potential support that Russia provides to North Korea when it comes to supporting their missile and nuclear programs”.
Bonnie Jenkins, Undersecretary of State, said she believes North Korea is keen to acquire fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies from Russia.
Military strategists and analysts understand that this agreement is actually a prelude or at least prior preparation for a possible war of the United States and its NATO allies against Russia or North Korea, or both.
We need to remember that until now, Russia is conducting a ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine, though Western media and its allies in the world, including the Global South, are terming it as the Ukraine war or Russia’s war in Ukraine. But now President Putin’s visit and the signing of the agreement signal that Moscow is anticipating a full-blown war in Ukraine and beyond, especially because US President Joe Biden has allowed Volodymyr Zelensky to use American advanced weapons, including F-16s, targeting mainland Russia. It may not be wild speculation to state that following the grand flop of Zelensky’s Swiss conference, he may now opt for the next option by attacking mainland Russia, which may result in Russia’s severe response.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration may also provoke South Korea to intensify hostility towards North Korea, which will compel Kim Jong Un to give a befitting response.
We also need to remember that during his North Korea visit, President Putin was accompanied by Russia’s Minister of Defense and the head of the country’s space agency, Roscosmos. Until now, though no one knows anything about the one-on-one discussion between Putin and Kim Jong Un, it can be easily anticipated that the North Korean leader has sought Moscow’s help in developing missile and nuclear programs.
Here, one crucial point can be discussed: if a NATO aircraft bearing a Ukrainian flag attacks the Russian mainland or Belgorod, it can be deemed an act of aggression, and in that case, Moscow may seek the assistance of Pyongyang.
Following President Putin’s visits to North Korea and Vietnam, key figures in the Biden administration might have started feeling extremely worried. In its desired direct war against Russia, it practically does not have any powerful ally except for NATO nations, which could effectively counter a mighty alliance of Russia, North Korea, and potentially China. Although, in my opinion, China may not directly join a possible West versus Russia war, it would definitely extend support both morally and by providing military hardware.
Meanwhile, Washington’s current ally, New Delhi, which has joined America’s military bloc to counter China, may not involve itself in any war against Russia due to the cordial relations between Moscow and Delhi. India may not support the United States with military hardware in its war against Russia, as that would jeopardize Delhi’s relations with Moscow in multiple ways.
Policymakers in Washington are not fully aware of this particular scenario.
The evolving geopolitical landscape presents significant challenges for the United States in forming effective alliances against the growing influence of Russia and China. President Putin’s strategic moves in North Korea and Vietnam, coupled with the strengthening of military ties with Pyongyang, signal a shifting balance of power that undermines the traditional West-centered world order. The Biden administration must navigate these complexities with careful diplomacy and strategic foresight.
While NATO remains a key ally, the potential involvement of countries like China, albeit indirectly, and the reluctance of India to oppose Russia complicate the US’s strategic calculations. The reality is that America’s global influence is facing unprecedented tests, and it must adapt to a multipolar world where emerging alliances and regional partnerships play crucial roles.
Moving forward, the US needs to reassess its strategies, strengthen its existing alliances, and seek new partnerships that can effectively counterbalance the alliances forming among Russia, North Korea, and China. Failure to do so may result in diminished influence and a reshaped global order where the US no longer holds a dominant position.
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