Arabic version: اقتصاد المملكة المتحدة يشهد نمواً غير متوقع في فبراير قبل أزمة الطاقة
The UK economy saw its biggest monthly rise in February in more than two years, with official figures showing a growth of 0.5%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised January’s estimate up to 0.1%, after previously stating there had been no growth. This data precedes the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28, which has caused significant energy market disruptions and raised concerns about a potential global recession.
Most economists had forecast GDP to rise by just 0.1% in February. The ONS reported that the key services sector, which accounts for more than three-quarters of the economy, grew by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Additionally, production output also grew by 0.5% in the month, while construction rose by 1.0%.
In the three months to February, a less volatile measure compared to the monthly numbers, GDP also grew by 0.5%, up from 0.3% in the three months to January. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research called the latest expansion in the economy “sizeable” but expected slower growth in March due to the recent energy price shock.
Economists expressed concerns regarding the sustainability of this growth. Fergus Jimenez-England, an associate economist, noted that the energy crisis is likely to hinder ongoing economic momentum. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, stated that the “bumper” growth in February was “probably already extinguished” by the Iran war.
Political reactions to the economic data varied. James Murray, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, emphasized that growth “only happens when the economy is on solid ground.” Conversely, Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride criticized the government’s preparedness for the energy crisis, while Liberal Democrats’ spokesperson Daisy Cooper warned that the positive growth figures could soon be overshadowed by economic challenges, urging for reductions in transport costs. According to BBC News, the IMF has indicated that the UK is likely to face the most significant growth downturn among major economies due to the ongoing conflict.
