Arabic version: متداولو كالشي يترقبون إشارات وورش إلى النفط والصدمة

According to Cnbc, Kalshi traders expect Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh may address energy-related risks at the Fed’s July press conference. An event contract on the prediction-market platform placed the chance that Warsh will say “oil” at 74%, while the odds of him mentioning “shock” were above 50% as of Monday afternoon.

The contract was among Kalshi’s leading mention markets and is set to be resolved based on Warsh’s remarks at a Wednesday press conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET. The interest follows a shorter statement from the Federal Open Market Committee after its June meeting, when Warsh did not provide an outlook for interest rates.

The Fed meeting comes after Iran and the United States paused fighting that had included exchanged attacks last week. Brent crude briefly rose above $100 per barrel before the halt reduced oil gains. Brent was trading below $89 on Monday. Bank of America said it was “textbook policy” for the central bank to avoid responding to an energy supply shock.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the Fed was largely expected to leave its overnight benchmark rate unchanged. A Kalshi contract on the July decision indicated nearly 75% odds that rates would remain at current levels, while FedWatch showed odds of a rate increase that week had risen to around 38% from 16% the prior week. Another Kalshi contract put the odds of the next Fed rate hike occurring this year at 68%.