Arabic version: البنك الدولي يرفع توقعات نمو شرق آسيا بدعم من صادرات الذكاء الاصطناعي

According to Cnbc, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for East Asia and the Pacific to 4.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from its April projection. The region, which includes 23 economies such as China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, is forecast to grow 4.4% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028. Vietnam received the largest upgrade among major regional economies, rising 1.1 percentage point to 7.4%.

The bank said artificial intelligence-related manufacturing and exports have powered the region’s strength. AI-related goods accounted for more than half of export growth in most regional economies, and more than 70% in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam shipped $1.4 trillion of AI-related goods during the 12 months through April. Excluding such goods, trade growth was “weak or negative,” the report said.

The World Bank warned that the region’s dependence on the AI boom leaves it exposed to a reversal in global technology spending. It said AI-related capital expenditure had reached about 6% of U.S. GDP, comparable with the 2000 peak in information-technology investment. Of $2.9 trillion in planned AI capital expenditure for 2025 through 2028, $800 billion is expected to come from private credit. AI-related lending represented 34% of private-credit activity in 2025, compared with an 18% average over the preceding five years.

A slowdown concentrated in AI would be material for East Asia because of its role in the AI supply chain, the bank said. It also noted that tighter financial conditions could slow the boom. A one-percentage-point slowdown in U.S. growth reduces other emerging-market growth by an estimated 0.6 percentage point, with the effect on investment about twice as large.