Arabic version: نموذج يقدّر قتلى حرب السودان في 2025 بنحو 80 ألفاً

According to Allafrica, a research model estimates that the most likely number of people directly killed in Sudan’s war during 2025 was close to 80,000, with a 90% probability that the toll fell between 73,000 and 90,000. The authors say there is also a small chance the true number reached 100,000.

The analysis, by Paola Vesco, Amber Deniz, David Randahl, Johan Brosché and Magnus Öberg, seeks to measure uncertainty in conflict-fatality reporting. It was built using surveys of expert coders from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and converts a single reported death figure into a plausible range.

Counts of direct deaths vary sharply. ACLED reported about 19,000 deaths from political violence across Sudan in 2025, describing the total as a conservative minimum. The Uppsala program estimated that attacks on civilians killed at least 60,000 people and that more than 10,000 died in fighting between the army and armed groups.

The capture of El-Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces in October 2025 followed an 18-month siege and was among the war’s deadliest episodes. Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab estimated that at least 60,000 people were killed during and after the capture, from late October through the end of December. A UN fact-finding mission concluded in February 2026 that killings in El-Fasher bore the hallmarks of genocide.

The authors said differing methods help explain the competing figures. ACLED counts deaths linked to specific incidents and uses the most conservative number when sources differ, while the Uppsala program can record broader totals as “summary” events. The estimates cover direct violence only; the article says many more people have probably died from disease and starvation. More than 34 million people in Sudan need humanitarian assistance and an estimated 14 million have been displaced.