Arabic version: النينيو يهدد إمدادات الغذاء والاقتصاد الريفي في الهند

According to Cnbc, India is bracing for a potential food crisis and economic strain after its lowest June-to-September rainfall in more than a decade. The India Meteorological Department said the season was the fourth driest since 2001 and the 13th driest since 1901, putting pressure on largely rain-fed farms and reservoirs.

Reservoirs were 28% short of full capacity at the end of September, Nomura said, raising risks for winter crops. The firm reported extreme drought conditions in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. India is a major producer of farm products, ranks among the leading global exporters of rice and sugar, and its agricultural sector supports 46.1% of the workforce.

Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said fertilizer shortages linked to geopolitical conflicts affecting key producers in the Middle East and Russia compound the threat from the super El Niño. He warned that the combination would lead to “a major food crisis” in the coming months.

The World Bank said India’s monsoon deficit appears larger than originally expected and is likely to reduce agricultural output and rural demand while increasing food inflation. Inflation had risen for 10 consecutive months and exceeded the central bank’s medium-term 4% target in August.

Rural areas account for nearly 40% of fast-moving consumer goods sales, making farm incomes important for companies including Hindustan Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive India, Nestle India, Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motors. S&P Global Market Intelligence expects the rural economy to slow materially in 2026 and 2027, while Morgan Stanley estimated agricultural gross value added growth of 1.6% in the financial year ending March 2027.