Arabic version: أسواق التنبؤ تثير مخاوف بشأن نزاهة الرياضة الأسترالية
According to The Guardian, low-profile Australian sporting events are drawing substantial betting activity on overseas prediction-market platforms. The ACT Meteors’ T20 Spring Challenge match against the Hobart Hurricanes, watched by only a few dozen people at Blacktown International Sportspark, exceeded $350,000 in wagers on Kalshi. A Sydney Sixers v Brisbane Heat match at Hurstville Oval reached $476,000.
Other listed Australian events have generated still higher volumes. A National Basketball League match in February topped $1m on Kalshi, while betting on an A-League Men game in April exceeded $1.1m on Polymarket. The platforms carry local sporting fixtures despite being unable to legally operate in Australia, and their growth has prompted a Melbourne seminar hosted by the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association and a Victorian police symposium.
Sports integrity consultant Dr Catherine Ordway said wagering on the platforms was “growing exponentially”. She said prediction markets extend beyond traditional outcomes such as a team winning or losing, creating markets in areas not previously seen as gambling products. Smaller bets on elements of a contest, described as exotic markets, props or contingencies, can carry greater manipulation risks, the report said.
Unlike regulated Australian bookmakers, overseas prediction platforms face no comparable limits on bet types. Polymarket offered a market on the number of corners in the Australia Cup match between Sydney Olympic and Brisbane Roar in July, with roughly $700 wagered. The platforms track betting activity but can offer user anonymity through cryptocurrency transactions and lenient identification policies. ASIC warned in an August education campaign that none of the services are licensed in Australia and that consumers may be betting against people with more information.
The expansion also threatens product-fee revenue for sporting leagues. The AFL receives roughly 1% of turnover on AFL bets placed through local providers, but no equivalent payment from Kalshi, where AFL matches have attracted more than $10m in bets. Kalshi and Polymarket introduced guardrails and surveillance tools this year following US concerns about insider trading vulnerabilities.
