Arabic version: صندوق النقد الدولي يحذّر من خطر قفزة غير منظمة في عوائد السندات
According to Cnbc, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that government bond yields could rise in a disorderly fashion as mounting debt, inflation risks and AI-related borrowing pressure sovereign bond markets. In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, released during the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, the fund said high debt loads and rollover risks have left markets susceptible to more frequent fiscal and inflation shocks.
Government bond yields in several advanced economies have climbed to multidecade highs, driven by higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict and expectations for tighter monetary conditions as central banks seek to curb resurgent inflation. The IMF said a sharp rise in sovereign yields could have severe consequences because of the foundational role of bond markets. Higher discount rates could reduce asset values, including AI-related assets, while also eroding the value of government bonds used as collateral.
The fund identified rapidly expanding AI borrowing as an additional strain, saying issuers compete with governments for investor demand. Hyperscalers’ share of global investment-grade bond issuance rose to 10% from less than 1% since 2024, according to the report. The IMF also highlighted 14 publicly disclosed AI financing deals since 2023 that involved about $300 billion in equity and $650 billion in debt, alongside $1.4 trillion in future revenue commitments through services or chip orders.
Hedge-fund holdings were another concern. Their share of U.S. Treasuries rose to about 9% in 2025 from about 4% in 2022, mostly through highly arbitraged strategies, the IMF said, citing Federal Reserve data. The fund warned that remaining leverage and overlapping positions could make Treasuries susceptible to a disorderly unwind. While liquidity has held up in the U.S., Europe and the U.K., the IMF said Japanese government bond market liquidity has continued to deteriorate as yield volatility increased.
