Arabic version: نمذجة الأعاصير تشير إلى موسم أهدأ في أستراليا
According to ABC News, modelling indicates Australia’s 2026/27 cyclone season could be among the quietest on record. The season runs from November 1 to April 30, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts modelling suggests five to eight named storms in the Australian region, compared with a long-term average of 11.
The forecast is based on 51 model runs using slightly different starting conditions. About two-thirds of those runs indicate between five and eight cyclones. The strongest signal for reduced activity is over the Indian Ocean off Western Australia and in the central and southern Coral Sea, while near-normal activity is forecast for waters off the Northern Territory, the Gulf of Carpentaria and near the Queensland coast.
The Bureau of Meteorology no longer issues an official seasonal cyclone outlook for Australia, saying climate change has reduced the accuracy of statistical models and historical relationships. Tropical cyclones are defined by the bureau as low-pressure systems with winds of at least 63 kilometres per hour, equivalent to gusts above 90 km/h, in at least three of four quadrants around their centre.
More than half of cyclones in the bureau’s area of responsibility do not make landfall or weaken below cyclone strength before reaching the coast. Since 1970, an average of three to four tropical lows have crossed the Australian coastline at cyclone strength or above each season, representing about 30 to 40 per cent of total systems. The 2025/26 season recorded 11 tropical cyclones, with five reaching the coast.
The outlook is consistent with past El Niño events, which have produced an average of seven or eight cyclones annually since 1970, compared with 12 during La Niña. While named-storm numbers have declined in recent decades, evidence indicates a higher proportion of category 4 or 5 systems. Rising sea levels can also increase storm-surge inundation, and communities in cyclone-prone areas are urged to prepare and follow current forecasts and warnings.
