In a political landscape overshadowed by widespread apathy and skepticism, Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune recently secured an overwhelming, though unsurprising, victory in the national election. Tebboune clinched 94 percent of the vote, a landslide that should, in theory, offer a strong mandate for his second term. However, with fewer than 6 million of 24 million eligible voters turning out, the low participation rate has sparked serious questions about the authenticity and legitimacy of the electoral process. This paradox-a decisive victory accompanied by abysmal turnout-underscores the disconnect between Algeria’s political establishment and its citizenry.
Tebboune’s reelection campaign leaned heavily on nostalgia, presenting him as “Uncle Tebboune,” a steady hand in a turbulent time. While this strategy may have resonated with a portion of the electorate, the broader narrative remains one of deep-rooted disillusionment. His first term was marred by persistent economic struggles, including high living costs, severe droughts, and devastating wildfires, all of which compounded the country’s political malaise. Algeria’s political climate has been volatile, largely shaped by the 2019 Hirak protests that saw the ousting of Tebboune’s predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, after nearly two decades in power.
Though Tebboune’s reelection might have appeared to solidify his leadership, his claim to presidential legitimacy remains contentious. Independent observers, as well as members of his own political party, have voiced concerns about irregularities in the election process, casting a shadow over the result. The electoral process, characterized by some as little more than a rubber-stamping exercise, has reinforced the perception that genuine democratic change in Algeria remains elusive.
The Hirak protests, which erupted in 2019, represented a mass movement calling for systemic political reforms and an end to the corrupt practices that had defined Algeria’s governance for decades. Tebboune’s election that same year was intended to be a response to these demands, yet his first term largely failed to address the root causes of unrest. Activists and civil society leaders condemned the preelection environment, highlighting government crackdowns and restrictions on political freedoms. The enduring disillusionment with Algeria’s political system, coupled with the absence of substantial reforms, has fueled an atmosphere of apathy among voters.
The most pressing question for Tebboune’s second term is whether he can transition from electoral consolidation to effective governance that addresses Algeria’s myriad socioeconomic issues. His administration faces the monumental challenge of pacifying a weary populace, frustrated by years of unfulfilled promises and an economy overly reliant on volatile hydrocarbon revenues. While the country’s oil and gas sectors have provided some temporary relief, long-term solutions will require a diversification of the economy and substantive reforms to address unemployment, inflation, and social inequality.
The Algerian economy remains highly dependent on hydrocarbons, which account for 95 percent of its export revenues and fund critical social programs. In recent years, the country has benefited from a surge in foreign interest in its natural gas, particularly from European nations seeking alternatives to Russian supplies. Yet, despite this windfall, Algeria’s economic fragility persists. Structural reforms are urgently needed to attract diversified investment and create new job opportunities, particularly for the nation’s large youth population, which faces high levels of unemployment.
Without meaningful economic reforms, Algeria will remain vulnerable to the volatility of global energy markets. This dependency also leaves Tebboune’s administration with limited options for addressing public discontent. Although there have been efforts to leverage hydrocarbon revenues to enhance social benefits, these measures have been largely palliative, failing to tackle the underlying economic challenges facing the country.
Compounding Algeria’s domestic struggles are the geopolitical challenges it faces in an increasingly unstable region. Tensions with neighboring Morocco have escalated in recent years, particularly following the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a move that Algeria vehemently opposes. The growing military cooperation between Morocco and Israel has further strained relations, prompting Algeria to ramp up its own military preparedness.
The presence of Russian mercenaries in Mali and the ongoing political crises in Libya also add to Algeria’s security concerns. The Sahel region, often referred to as the “coup belt,” has seen a series of military takeovers that have further destabilized the area. Algeria, with its history of civil strife, is particularly vulnerable to the cross-border threats emanating from these developments.
Tebboune’s administration faces the difficult task of balancing these external pressures with internal demands for political reform. Algeria has historically opposed external interventions in the region, and the presence of foreign military actors-whether Russian or Western-only complicates the situation. At the same time, the Algerian government must contend with a populace increasingly frustrated by the lack of democratic progress.
One of the more troubling developments in recent years has been the increasing visibility and influence of Algeria’s military in political affairs. President Tebboune has frequently appeared alongside the army’s chief of staff, Said Chengriha, signaling a shift in the military’s role from behind-the-scenes power broker to a more public political player. This overt association between the presidency and the military risks further alienating civilian support and eroding public trust in the government.
A revised constitutional framework, which designates the military as the protector of Algeria’s “vital and strategic interests,” raises concerns about the potential for increased military intervention in civilian affairs. The broad and ambiguous language of this framework could be used to justify military involvement in situations where the government perceives threats to national security, further stifling political pluralism.
Legislative changes that restrict public discourse on national defense and broaden the definition of terrorism to include actions deemed destabilizing to the government also point to a tightening of state control. These measures, coupled with the repression of activists like Karim Tabbou, suggest that Algeria is moving further away from democratic ideals, rather than toward them.
As Tebboune embarks on his second term, the challenges before him are immense. His administration must navigate a delicate balance between addressing the country’s pressing economic needs and responding to public demands for greater political freedom. The ongoing influence of the military in political affairs only adds to the complexity of the situation, creating a volatile environment that could easily lead to further unrest.
For Algeria to move forward, Tebboune must make genuine efforts to engage with political pluralism and implement the economic reforms necessary to reduce the country’s reliance on hydrocarbons. Without these changes, the gap between government rhetoric and grassroots realities will continue to widen, exacerbating national frustration and perpetuating the cycle of disillusionment that has come to define Algerian politics.
Ultimately, the success of Tebboune’s second term will depend on his ability to transform his electoral victory into meaningful governance that addresses the underlying issues plaguing Algeria. If he fails to do so, the prospects for a “New Algeria” will remain as distant as ever.
