This morning in Picnic Point, I waited once again for the 923 bus to Bankstown, scheduled for 9:01 AM. It never arrived. Neither did the next one at 9:21 AM. According to real-time tracking apps like Google Maps, both services were marked as “departed,” yet no bus ever passed. This has happened more than eight times over the past month, all without warning or explanation.

These silent cancellations—undocumented by transport apps and unannounced at bus stops—are symptomatic of a deeper issue embedded in the structure of New South Wales’ bus service contracts. And commuters are paying the price.

A Contract That Makes Cancellations Cheaper Than Delays

The 923 service, like many others in Sydney’s south-west, is operated by U-Go Mobility, a joint venture between UGL and the UK-based Go-Ahead Group. The company took over bus operations in July 2023 under a contract awarded by the former NSW Liberal Government in December 2022.

Under the terms of the Greater Sydney Bus Contract, financial penalties apply when services run late. As per Schedule 4 of the contract (published by Transport for NSW), a bus is considered on time if it departs a stop no more than 59 seconds early and no more than 5 minutes 59 seconds late.

However, service cancellations are treated differently. According to responses provided in NSW Parliament LC Paper 97094, while cancellations do trigger payment reductions, penalties only apply after certain thresholds are met. Beyond that point, further cancellations may not carry additional financial consequences—making it, in effect, cheaper for an operator to cancel a service than to run it late.

This loophole has allowed private operators to minimise financial risk by cutting services entirely, rather than risking delay penalties. And for passengers, this results in a service that is not only unreliable but also invisible in official reporting—still appearing as “departed” despite never having arrived.

A City-Wide Crisis of Confidence in Public Transport

According to ABC News, nearly 28,000 bus services were cancelled across Sydney in August 2023 alone, leaving an estimated one million commuters stranded. Many of these cancellations occurred in suburbs now serviced by U-Go Mobility, including Picnic Point, Panania, and Bankstown.

However, the problem is far from localised. Recently, In the Cove reported that commuters, students, and parents in the Lane Cove area have been left frustrated by persistent cancellations and delays, often with no prior warning. In another recent report by Australia Times, widespread disruptions were noted in Sydney’s northern beaches and lower north shore, with driver shortages and the removal of bendy buses worsening the crisis. In both areas, residents have been forced to wait significantly longer or miss work and school due to unreliable services.

These accounts show that the bus reliability crisis is systemic, not regional. And it stems from the very contracts meant to ensure service quality.

Government Oversight Without Structural Reform

In response to the breakdown in services, Transport for NSW stepped in to co-manage U-Go Mobility’s operations in July 2023. Measures included deploying senior staff to major interchanges, introducing a revised timetable, and reallocating school routes to other operators.

As reported by Truck & Bus News, this “step-in” was initiated after weeks of performance failures. However, despite operational interventions, the underlying contract clauses remain unchanged—meaning the financial structure that may incentivise cancellations over delays is still intact.

Solutions: What Can Be Done?

Fixing the issue requires more than just reactive oversight—it demands a structural shift in how performance is measured, enforced, and incentivised.

Based on global best practices, several measures could address this crisis:

• Revise Contractual Penalties: Cancelled services should carry equal or greater penalties than late-running ones. In Singapore, the Bus Contracting Model imposes consistent penalties and rewards for performance across all metrics, including reliability.
• Escalating Penalties: Introduce penalties that increase as cancellations mount, eliminating the “safe threshold” strategy used to avoid delay fines.
• Real-Time Public Dashboards: Victoria’s PTV Performance Tracker publishes reliability metrics for public scrutiny. A similar tool in NSW would improve transparency and hold operators accountable.
• Reward High Performance: London offers incentives for operators who meet both reliability and customer satisfaction standards, shifting the focus from cost-cutting to service excellence.
• Allow Operator Diversification: London’s use of multiple contractors under central scheduling prevents full system collapses when a single provider underperforms.
• Formal Termination Clauses: South Australia’s Passenger Transport Act grants the Minister power to vary or cancel contracts for persistent underperformance—something NSW may consider reinforcing.

Awaiting Responses and Accountability

We contacted the NSW Minister for Transport, the Shadow Minister for Transport, U-Go Mobility, and the State Member for East Hills—which includes Picnic Point—for comment on the ongoing cancellation issue and whether there are plans to amend cancellation-related clauses in the bus service contracts.

A Transport for NSW spokesperson responded:

“All bus contracts in NSW contain Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for operators. TfNSW has no plans to modify the KPIs for current bus contracts and continues to work with all operators to maximise passenger outcomes.
TfNSW monitors and reports on KPIs monthly and investigates any deviation from these KPIs using contractual mechanisms to manage deviations where necessary.”

Meanwhile, Kylie Wilkinson MP, Member for East Hills, acknowledged the community’s frustration:

“I understand how disruptive ongoing bus cancellations are for many in our community who rely on public transport to get to school, work, appointments and the shops.

After 12 years of neglect and privatisation under the former Liberal Government, we’ve been left with more cancellations and a less reliable transport system. The impact of these privatised contracts is being felt across our community.

I’ve already raised these concerns with the Minister’s office and will continue to meet with both the Minister and the Department to discuss the serious impact these disruptions are having on people in the East Hills electorate. Reliable and accessible public transport is essential for our community, and I’ll keep advocating to ensure we get the services we deserve.”

We await further responses from other parties and will continue to update this article as they are received.

Conclusion

NSW’s current bus service contract structure may be unintentionally rewarding cancellations while punishing delay—leaving residents across Sydney waiting for services that may never arrive. From Picnic Point to Lane Cove and the northern beaches, the message is clear: the system isn’t working.

Unless reforms are made to the way bus services are defined, monitored, and enforced, public confidence in NSW’s transport system will continue to erode.

Because when it comes to essential services like buses, better late than never should still mean something.