As Ukraine enters its third year of war with Russia, US President Joe Biden has made it clear that the remainder of his term will be dedicated to fortifying Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, speaking at a conference organized by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation on September 14, emphasized Biden’s resolve to use his remaining months in office to place Ukraine in the strongest possible position before the expected presidential transition in January.
The Biden administration’s comprehensive support for Ukraine has become a defining aspect of its foreign policy, with aid packages, military assistance, and diplomatic efforts underscoring the US’s strategic interest in ensuring Ukraine’s defense. However, the looming prospect of Biden’s exit from office-and the potential for a less Ukraine-friendly administration to take over-has heightened concerns both in Washington and Kyiv. With former President Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about ongoing support for Ukraine, running as a candidate in the 2024 US election, Ukrainian officials are preparing for a potential shift in American foreign policy.
With Biden’s decision to step down from the upcoming presidential race, Ukraine faces an uncertain future. While Biden has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine in the West, a new administration, especially one led by Trump, could pose serious challenges for the continuation of this support. Trump has often criticized what he views as the disproportionate burden on the US to aid Ukraine, raising concerns that his return to power could lead to a reduction in military and financial assistance.
This potential shift in US policy could have a significant impact on Ukraine’s ability to continue defending itself against Russian advances, particularly in the east of the country, where the war has been most intense. Biden and his administration are acutely aware of the stakes involved. “President Zelensky has said that ultimately this war has to end through negotiations, and we need them to be strong in those negotiations,” Sullivan said during his address, highlighting the importance of bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities ahead of any peace talks.
Sullivan’s remarks come at a critical juncture in the war. Ukraine’s forces have made bold moves, including a surprise cross-border attack in Russia’s Kursk region in early August. Despite these efforts, Moscow has continued to gain ground in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donetsk region. Sullivan specifically pointed to the city of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub of significant concern, with Russian forces advancing to within 10 kilometers of the area. This part of the eastern front has seen heavy fighting, and its control is vital for both sides due to its strategic importance in logistics and resupply.
One of the major themes of Sullivan’s speech was the need for continued Western military support to sustain Ukraine’s defense efforts. While the US and its allies have provided billions of dollars in aid, including advanced weapons systems, Kyiv has frequently expressed frustration over delays in the delivery of this aid. Ukrainian officials have argued that these logistical challenges are costing valuable time and could allow Russian forces to make further advances.
“It’s not a matter of political will,” Sullivan explained, defending the Biden administration against criticism from Ukrainian officials. “It’s a matter of busting through these difficult and complicated logistics.” However, Sullivan acknowledged the growing urgency of the situation. “Given what Ukraine is up against, we’ve got to do more, and we’ve got to do better,” he admitted.
One of the upcoming pivotal moments in US-Ukraine relations will be a meeting between President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly in late September. The two leaders are expected to discuss strategies for enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities and strengthening diplomatic efforts. This meeting will be closely watched by international observers as the US seeks to coordinate continued support for Ukraine while simultaneously managing its complex relations with other global powers, including Russia and China.
Sullivan noted that Biden is “determined to use the four months to put Ukraine in the best possible position to prevail,” reaffirming the administration’s commitment to helping Ukraine win the war. However, with the clock ticking, the Biden administration is under increasing pressure to not only expedite military aid but also to ensure that Ukraine is in a strong enough position to negotiate a favorable peace settlement when the time comes.
The UN meeting between Biden and Zelensky will likely cover not only the ongoing military struggle but also how the US can assist in defending Ukraine against Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. Sullivan pointed out the significant threat posed by Russia’s continued strikes on civilian energy infrastructure, which are not only harming Ukraine’s economy but also pose risks to its nuclear power plants. The winter months ahead will test Ukraine’s resilience, and both military aid and humanitarian assistance will be essential in helping the country withstand renewed Russian offensives.
As the Biden administration seeks to reinforce Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, the broader geopolitical stakes of the conflict remain as high as ever. While Western support has been instrumental in helping Ukraine resist Russia’s advances, Kyiv remains heavily reliant on the US for military and financial assistance. The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election could significantly alter the course of the conflict, depending on whether a new administration continues Biden’s policies or seeks to scale back US involvement.
In the meantime, Ukraine is focused on defending key areas in the east, including the embattled Donetsk region, while preparing for what could be decisive negotiations in the future. As Sullivan noted, “this war has to end through negotiations,” but Ukraine must be in a position of strength when those negotiations occur. With Biden committed to using his remaining time in office to support Ukraine, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether Ukraine can maintain that strength-both on the battlefield and at the bargaining table.
For now, Kyiv can count on Biden’s unwavering support, but what lies ahead remains uncertain. With the future of US-Ukraine relations potentially hinging on the outcome of the 2024 election, Ukraine faces a delicate balancing act, preparing for both continued conflict and the eventual hope of peace.
