Arabic version: استطلاع يشير إلى رفع بنك اليابان الفائدة بمقدار ربع نقطة

According to Cnbc, the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday. The move would take rates to a new three-decade high and mark a faster pace of tightening than the six-month interval the central bank has followed since beginning policy normalization in March 2024.

About 89% of the 18 economists and analysts surveyed from Sept. 9 to 14 expected a quarter-point increase. Respondents cited higher inflation, higher wages and pressure from the U.S. government. The BOJ last raised rates in June. Japan’s headline inflation rate reached 1.9% in July, its highest level this year, driven by increased energy costs from the Iran war, while real wages rose 2.4% for a seventh consecutive month.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take “decisive market and monetary steps” during the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting earlier this month. Bessent later said on social media that they had discussed anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess volatility in exchange rates. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute and a former BOJ policy board member, said the Trump administration had effectively checked a potential effort by a Takaichi administration to block rate rises.

Survey views included exceptions. Jesper Koll of Monex Group expected a 50-basis-point “one and done” increase, while Carlos Casanova of UBP expected the BOJ to hold rates for now, citing insufficient visibility for a faster pace. Around a third of respondents identified Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato as the board members most likely to dissent on an increase. For the yen, 61% expected it to trade between 155 and 160 over the next month.