Arabic version: تصريحات بولوك تعزز التوقعات برفع سعر الفائدة من بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي

According to ABC News, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock’s final public remarks before next week’s board meeting reinforced expectations that interest rates will rise. All four major banks and most money-market traders now expect an increase when the RBA Monetary Policy Board meets on September 28-29.

Speaking at a Committee for Economic Development of Australia event in Sydney, Ms Bullock said the jobs market was probably still “a bit too tight” and was adding pressure to wages, business costs and inflation. She said unemployment between 4.5 and 5 per cent would probably remove enough heat from the labour market to ease inflationary pressure. August unemployment data, due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, will be the last major data release before the meeting.

Ms Bullock also said policymakers needed to prevent imported inflation from the global energy price shock from creating further domestic price rises. “We need to be very careful to ensure that policy is set in a way that minimises the second round and indirect effects which might perpetuate ongoing inflation,” she said. She added that monetary policy needed to limit indirect effects and keep inflation expectations anchored.

After Ms Bullock’s parliamentary testimony on Friday, CBA and Westpac changed their forecasts to expect a September increase, while NAB had already anticipated one. ANZ added a September rise while retaining its forecast for a November move, which would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent. Bloomberg futures pricing suggested a 90 per cent chance of an increase next week and about an even chance of a further rise in November. Fixed mortgage rates have already moved higher: Commonwealth Bank lifted its two-year fixed home-loan rate by 0.48 percentage points to 6.82 per cent.

In her wider economic discussion, Ms Bullock said artificial intelligence could eventually lift productivity and reduce inflationary pressure, but it was currently adding to demand before supply-side gains had emerged. She also acknowledged concerns that AI investment and company valuations could be running ahead of realistic earnings potential, describing it as a risk the RBA was watching ahead of its next Financial Stability Review.