In recent months, the already strained relationship between the United States and China has taken another significant hit, this time centered around nuclear arms. A report by The New York Times revealed that US President Joe Biden reoriented the United States’ nuclear strategic plan in March to counteract China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal. The move has sparked a swift and critical response from both China’s state media and its foreign ministry, highlighting the growing tension between the world’s two largest economies over nuclear capabilities.
The New York Times reported that President Biden approved a revised nuclear strategy called “Nuclear Employment Guidance” in March 2024. This strategy marks a significant shift in US military focus, placing China at the forefront of its nuclear considerations. According to the report, the revised plan was developed in response to mounting concerns within the Pentagon that China’s nuclear stockpile could soon rival those of the United States and Russia in terms of size and diversity.
The revised US strategy aims to prepare the nation for potential coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea. Although the strategy’s approval was not publicly announced, it is expected that an unclassified notification will be sent to Congress before President Biden leaves office. The White House, however, has downplayed the notion that the nuclear strategic plan was developed in response to any single country or threat, framing it as part of a broader strategy to maintain global security.
China’s state media and foreign ministry wasted no time in condemning the reported shift in US nuclear strategy. The Global Times, a government-controlled newspaper known for its nationalistic and often combative tone, was particularly vocal. The newspaper’s editor accused the United States of using China as an excuse to justify maintaining its massive nuclear arsenal in the post-Cold War era. “China has become the best excuse for the US in justifying maintaining such a massive nuclear arsenal in the post-Cold War world,” the editor asserted, reflecting the view that the US is leveraging China’s rise as a pretext to bolster its own military might.
The editor of the Global Times went further, suggesting that instead of “smearing and hyping up China,” the United States should engage in self-reflection and work to rebuild mutual trust with China through dialogue and sincerity. This sentiment was echoed by China’s foreign ministry, which accused the US of pushing a “China nuclear threat narrative” to seek strategic advantage. Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the foreign ministry, emphasized that China has “no intention to engage in any form of arms race with other countries,” a statement aimed at countering the US narrative of an escalating nuclear competition.
The rivalry between the US and China over nuclear capabilities is not new, but it has intensified in recent years. The Pentagon’s annual report from 2023 highlighted a significant increase in China’s nuclear inventory, projecting that it could surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030. As of May 2023, China reportedly possessed over 500 operational nuclear warheads, exceeding previous projections and raising alarms within the US defense establishment.
The US has repeatedly expressed concern over China’s nuclear ambitions, particularly in the context of its broader military modernization efforts. These concerns have been exacerbated by China’s development of advanced missile systems, including hypersonic missiles capable of evading current missile defense systems. The US views these developments as part of China’s broader strategy to challenge American military dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
In response to these developments, the US has sought to engage China in dialogue aimed at preventing an arms race. In March 2024, the two countries resumed informal nuclear arms talks, with Chinese representatives assuring that they would not resort to atomic threats over Taiwan. However, these talks have yet to yield any significant breakthroughs, and the overall trajectory of US-China relations remains fraught with tension.
The revised US nuclear strategy and China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal have profound implications for global security. While both countries have emphasized their desire to avoid an arms race, the reality on the ground suggests a growing competition for nuclear superiority. This competition is not just about numbers but also about technological advancements and strategic positioning.
For the US, the challenge is twofold. On one hand, it must maintain a credible nuclear deterrent in the face of rising Chinese capabilities. On the other hand, it must navigate the complexities of a multipolar nuclear world, where not just China, but also Russia and North Korea, pose significant challenges. The revised nuclear strategy reflects this dual focus, preparing the US for a possible scenario where it must simultaneously manage nuclear threats from multiple adversaries.
For China, the expansion of its nuclear arsenal is part of a broader effort to assert itself as a global superpower. By building a more robust and diverse nuclear force, China aims to deter potential adversaries and secure its interests in key regions, particularly in Asia. However, this strategy comes with risks, as it may provoke further military build-ups by the US and its allies, leading to a new era of nuclear competition.
The escalating nuclear rivalry between the US and China underscores the deepening strategic competition between the two nations. While both sides have expressed a desire to avoid an arms race, their actions suggest otherwise. The revised US nuclear strategy and China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal are likely to fuel further tensions, with significant implications for global security. As the two largest economies in the world continue to clash over their nuclear ambitions, the risk of miscalculation and conflict looms ever larger. Rebuilding mutual trust through dialogue and diplomacy will be crucial in preventing a new Cold War-style nuclear arms race, but achieving this will require both nations to move beyond rhetoric and take meaningful steps toward cooperation.
