Arabic version: قيود إمدادات الديزل تشير إلى استمرار الأسعار المرتفعة لفترة طويلة

According to Cnbc, wholesale diesel prices more than doubled from the beginning of 2026 through the end of September as wars in Ukraine and Iran cut global supply. Analysts say surging diesel prices are likely to remain high in the near future as midterm elections approach.

The International Energy Agency’s October monthly report, released Wednesday, said diesel-market constraints will likely keep prices elevated into next year. Even if refineries increase diesel production through year-end, inventories are likely to remain strained until the second half of 2027, the agency warned. Goldman Sachs also predicted last week that diesel prices would stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand.

Last Friday, President Donald Trump paused sanctions on Russian diesel fuel and said he had reached a deal with President Vladimir Putin for the Kremlin to release 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, or nearly 36 million barrels, to the global market. Experts said bringing more Russian diesel to market was unlikely to change near-term prices.

Trump has said Russia’s war in Ukraine is responsible for high diesel prices. Russia banned diesel exports on July 8 after Ukraine struck its refineries. In the United States, the price of a gallon of diesel rose nearly 40% between July 6 and Sept. 22. But diesel prices had already jumped after the Iran war began and remained 20% above their prewar level when Russia imposed its export ban.

Over the weekend, Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine on Truth Social. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later accused Russia of attacking the country’s energy facilities. Both conflicts have caused major ripple effects across global energy markets and major price swings, sometimes daily.