As the US presidential race intensifies and polls show Kamala Harris with a slight lead over Donald Trump, uncertainty looms over the outcome of the November elections. While the world closely watches the race, Europe, more than any other region, is bracing for the potential return of Trump to the White House. The 2017–2021 Trump presidency significantly altered the transatlantic alliance, and a second term could deepen the divides that surfaced during his first tenure. As a result, European leaders are already planning for the geopolitical and economic challenges that might arise from a second Trump presidency.
Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine deeply impacted Europe’s trade, security, and diplomatic relations with the US During his first term, transatlantic disputes over defense spending, trade imbalances, and tariffs were frequent. Trump’s critiques of NATO, particularly regarding defense spending, led to tensions between the traditionally close allies. His administration’s imposition of tariffs on European steel and aluminum in 2018, followed by Europe’s countermeasures, is a stark reminder of how fragile US-Europe relations became.
Should Trump return to power in 2024, Europe is likely to face an even more transactional US foreign policy. Trump’s view of Europe as a “delinquent” partner that does not contribute its fair share to NATO and the global security framework still resonates in his political rhetoric. If he takes office again, Trump would likely push Europe harder to boost defense spending and take greater responsibility for its own security.
A major concern for Europe is Trump’s approach to trade. The European Union (EU) has already begun preparing for possible trade disputes, particularly over the growing trade deficit with the US, which ballooned from €110 billion in 2016 to over €150 billion in 2023. While the EU has reportedly considered offering Trump early trade deals to reduce this deficit, European leaders are also preparing for the worst. If the deal-making strategy fails, Brussels could retaliate with tariffs on US goods, just as it did in 2018 when Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
If trade negotiations between the EU and the US falter, a second Trump administration could impose further tariffs on European goods. A mooted 10 percent minimum tariff on EU exports to the US could have severe economic consequences for Europe’s industries, particularly automotive and technology sectors. For example, Germany’s car manufacturers and France’s aerospace industries are highly dependent on US markets, and any restrictions or tariffs could lead to significant losses in revenue and jobs.
Trump’s protectionist stance could further exacerbate Europe’s trade woes, leading to potential disruptions in global supply chains. Given the already fragile state of the global economy following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, Europe may face significant economic challenges if it cannot swiftly resolve potential trade disputes with a second Trump administration.
Defense spending remains one of the most contentious issues between Europe and the US under Trump. Throughout his first term, Trump repeatedly criticized NATO allies for not meeting the target of spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense. While some progress has been made-23 of NATO’s 32 member states are on track to meet this target-key European economies, such as Italy and Spain, continue to fall short.
Poland has become a leading example in Europe’s efforts to bolster defense spending, allocating about 4 percent of its GDP to defense in 2023. This is comparable to the US defense expenditure as a proportion of GDP and underscores Poland’s commitment to NATO and its desire to play a larger role in European security. Western European nations, such as the UK and France, are also increasing their defense budgets. Under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the UK is expected to raise defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP, signaling a renewed focus on military strength.
Despite these efforts, Europe remains heavily dependent on the US for security guarantees, a reality that became even more evident after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called for greater European strategic autonomy, the continent still relies on US military might for its security. A second Trump term would bring significant uncertainty to the transatlantic security partnership, as Trump has expressed doubts about NATO’s relevance and has questioned whether the US should defend all its allies.
In the face of these challenges, European leaders must urgently address their defense capabilities. Even if Harris wins the 2024 election, Europe must continue to invest in its own security to lessen its reliance on the US The next few years are expected to be geopolitically turbulent, particularly as Russia grows more emboldened and China asserts its influence on the global stage.
While Europe is wary of another Trump presidency, it recognizes the need to maintain diplomatic ties with key Republicans who would likely play significant roles in his administration. Early engagement with these figures could help smooth potential conflicts over trade, defense, and climate policy. European leaders are already seeking to deepen their ties with Republicans to ensure a more stable and cooperative relationship with the US, should Trump win the presidency.
For instance, Europe’s concerns over climate change policies could be a major sticking point in future US-EU relations. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017, and a second term could see him rolling back further environmental regulations and commitments. Given Europe’s strong stance on climate action, this would present a serious diplomatic challenge. Early engagement with Trump’s advisors on these issues might mitigate some of the potential fallout.
As Europe faces the prospect of a second Trump presidency, the stakes could not be higher. While much of the continent is hoping for a Harris victory, there is growing recognition that Europe must prepare for the possibility of another four years of Trump’s “America First” policies. From trade disputes to defense spending and climate action, Europe must adopt a proactive approach to navigating the potential challenges ahead.
The key for Europe will be to strengthen its own defense capabilities, deepen its economic ties with other global powers, and maintain open channels of communication with both Democratic and Republican leaders in the US As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, Europe’s ability to navigate a potential second Trump term will be critical to its long-term security and prosperity.
The post Europe prepares for possible Trump presidency in 2024 appeared first on BLiTZ.
