Arabic version: فيتش تُبقي تصنيف السعودية عند A+ مشيرة إلى احتياطيات مالية قوية
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s strong fiscal buffers and external finances despite regional conflict and trade disruptions. According to Arab News, the agency said government debt and sovereign net foreign assets remain considerably stronger than those of similarly rated peers.
The report noted substantial fiscal buffers in the form of public sector deposits and other assets that underpin the rating, while oil dependence and governance indicators continue to constrain it. Fitch said Saudi Arabia’s economy and public finances remained resilient to the US-Iran war. The agency also noted that oil exports continued via the Kingdom’s East-West pipeline during the conflict, while non-oil growth was affected by disruptions to petrochemical exports, and it expects real GDP growth to slow to 0.6 percent in 2026.
Angus Blair, CEO of Signet, told Arab News the affirmation reflected Saudi Arabia’s swift response to regional conflict and the recalibration of government spending while maintaining Vision 2030 momentum. Abdullah Almeer, assistant professor of economics at KFUPM Business School, told Arab News the decision reflected the kingdom’s balance of near-term geopolitical challenges with longer-term structural reforms. The report highlighted banking-sector resilience — non-performing loans at 1.1 percent and a Tier 1 capital ratio of 19.2 percent at the end of the first quarter — and cited indicators of non-oil expansion such as a 3.2 percent month-on-month rise in the Industrial Production Index in May and a Purchasing Managers’ Index of 53.3 in June.
Fitch said the phased delivery of giga-projects, continued Public Investment Fund spending under its new five-year plan, and major upcoming events will underpin economic activity, even as lower government capital expenditure, project recalibration and slower credit growth are expected to moderate expansion. The agency also expects foreign-exchange reserves to remain broadly stable at the equivalent of 11.6 months of current external payments this year, and sovereign net foreign assets are projected to stay significantly above peer levels despite increased borrowing.
What happens next: Fitch expects growth to rebound in 2027 as shipping flows normalize. It projects the fiscal deficit to narrow this year before widening to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2027 as oil prices ease, and forecasts government debt to rise to 41.3 percent of GDP by the end of 2028 from 31.8 percent at the end of 2025.
Related sections: Arab | Gulf/الخليج | General | Economy/اقتصاد | Middle East/الشرق الأوسط
