For much of the postwar era, France and Germany have served as the twin motors of European integration, forming the backbone of the European project. From their cooperation emerged critical institutions like the European Union (EU), a body that has profoundly shaped the political, economic, and social landscape of Europe. However, both nations are now confronting political crises that threaten not only their own stability but also the broader cohesion of the EU. As Germany grapples with a surge of far-right support and France faces an enduring political stalemate, the long-standing partnership between these two powers faces serious challenges.
One of the most alarming developments in Germany is the unprecedented success of the far-right party, Alternative for Deutschland (AfD). In regional elections in East Germany in September 2024, the AfD secured over 32% of the vote in Thuringia, a result that shocked the nation. This was the first time since the Nazi era that a far-right party has gained such significant political ground, surpassing even the traditionally dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU). While the AfD’s rise has been fueled by growing dissatisfaction with Germany’s handling of issues such as immigration, economic inequality, and energy policy, it represents a deeper fracture in the political landscape.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has struggled to respond effectively to the rise of the AfD. His government, a coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), has been plagued by internal divisions and policy disagreements. As a result, it faces the real possibility of collapsing before the next federal elections scheduled for September 2025. If that were to happen, Germany could see a period of prolonged political instability, with uncertain outcomes for its future governance.
However, despite the AfD’s success in regional elections, its chances of winning national power remain slim. Germany’s complex political system, which often requires coalition building, makes it difficult for fringe parties like the AfD to secure majority control. Still, the party’s growing influence cannot be ignored. Its rhetoric, which taps into populist fears about immigration, the economy, and German identity, has resonated deeply in certain parts of the country, particularly in the former East Germany.
Meanwhile, France is experiencing its own political crisis, one that could have even more far-reaching consequences than the situation in Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron has seen his political capital erode over recent months, with his centrist movement facing stiff opposition from both the far-left and far-right. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, has emerged as a major force in French politics, winning the most votes in the June 2024 European Parliament elections. Le Pen, who has long been a formidable challenger to the French political establishment, now stands a serious chance of becoming France’s next president in 2027.
Macron’s response to the rise of National Rally has been to call snap elections in late June and early July 2024 for the French General Assembly, hoping to reassert his control over the legislative agenda. However, the result was a stalemate, with no single party winning a majority. This has left France with a caretaker government, and only in September 2024 was a new prime minister, technocrat Michel Barnier, appointed. Barnier, best known for leading the EU’s Brexit negotiations, now faces the daunting task of trying to form a stable government in an increasingly polarized political environment.
The situation in France is particularly dire because, unlike in Germany, the possibility of far-right control of the national government is very real. Le Pen’s National Rally has gained ground by appealing to disaffected voters who feel left behind by globalization and the European project. Her anti-immigration, Eurosceptic rhetoric resonates with a significant portion of the French electorate, and she has worked diligently to present herself as a mainstream alternative to Macron’s centrist policies.
As both Germany and France face political upheaval, the traditional Franco-German alliance that has driven European integration appears to be weakening. The personal relationship between Scholz and Macron has been strained, particularly in the aftermath of Angela Merkel’s departure from the political scene. Merkel, who served as Germany’s chancellor for 16 years, maintained a strong partnership with Macron, even when their views diverged on certain issues. Together, they were able to secure key victories for the EU, including persuading member states to grant the bloc debt-raising powers to finance a post-pandemic recovery plan worth €750 billion.
However, Scholz and Macron have not been able to replicate this level of cooperation. Their differing priorities have created friction, with Macron seeking to diversify French alliances, most notably with Spain and Italy. In 2023, Macron signed the Barcelona Treaty with Spain, aimed at increasing cooperation on trade and energy, including the construction of an underwater pipeline between Barcelona and Marseille. Similarly, Macron signed the Quirinale Treaty with Italy in 2021, pledging greater collaboration on issues like migration and artificial intelligence.
These moves suggest that Macron is hedging his bets, expanding France’s diplomatic ties beyond its traditional partnership with Germany. While the Franco-German alliance has been the foundation of the European project for decades, it is increasingly being supplemented by new alliances that reflect the evolving political dynamics within Europe.
The simultaneous political crises in Germany and France come at a critical time for the EU. With the war in Ukraine still ongoing, economic challenges from inflation and energy costs, and rising geopolitical tensions, the bloc needs strong, stable leadership more than ever. Yet, the political weakness of Scholz and Macron threatens to undermine the EU’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively.
A key concern is the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2025. During his first term, Trump was openly hostile to the EU, even encouraging member states to leave the union. Should Trump return to the White House, the EU could face renewed pressure to fragment, especially if far-right leaders like Le Pen gain power in France. This scenario raises the specter of a weakened Europe, unable to assert itself on the global stage or address its internal divisions.
As Germany and France struggle with their respective political crises, the future of the EU hangs in the balance. The Franco-German partnership has long been the driving force behind European integration, but with both Scholz and Macron facing domestic challenges and a strained bilateral relationship, the EU’s ability to move forward cohesively is in question.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Scholz and Macron can overcome their political difficulties and restore the strength of the Franco-German alliance. If they cannot, Europe may find itself entering a period of uncertainty, with the potential for further fragmentation and the rise of populist forces that threaten the very foundations of the European project. As 2024 progresses, all eyes will be on Berlin and Paris, where the decisions made could shape the future of Europe for decades to come.
