Arabic version: صفقة خيارات الذهب تشير إلى احتمال تراجع قصير الأجل

According to Cnbc, gold is up 15% this month and is quietly on pace for its best month since 2008, even as higher interest rates have accompanied the rally. A large options transaction in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, known as GLD, has drawn attention because it points to a potential reversal over the coming weeks.

Twenty minutes after Monday’s market open, a trader sold almost 116,000 GLD calls with a 420 strike price that expire Sept. 18. The contracts were in the money, and the sale collected $202 million in premium. The trader used part of that premium to buy the same number of calls with a 430 strike price and the same expiry for $144 million, producing a net credit of $58 million.

The position is a call spread. Although selling spreads can often be viewed as neutral, the sale of in-the-money calls puts the trade’s breakeven point at $425 at expiry, the midpoint between the two strike prices. With GLD trading at $427, the structure amounts to an effectively bearish view that requires gold to decline slightly during the next four weeks.

“The probability is very high that gold sees a short-term pullback,” said Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report. He said momentum-crowd flows remained very bullish while smart-money flows had turned negative, adding that GLD had already recorded about $60 million of negative net money flow that day.

The trade comes before the release of PCE inflation on Wednesday and the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming on Thursday. It also contrasts with broader GLD options activity: traders likely bought more than 37,000 calls, compared with fewer than 20,000 puts, according to ThinkOrSwim data. SpotGamma data showed 13 calls among the 15 highest-volume contracts Monday, while Cboe LiveVol data indicated GLD volume was on pace for almost five times its 30-day average.