Arabic version: تقرير الوظائف لشهر يوليو يُتوقع أن يُظهر نمواً متواضعاً

According to Cnbc, Wall Street expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, to show an increase of 83,000 jobs while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%.

The forecast follows a slow June, when payrolls increased by 57,000. Economists are also expected to focus on labor-force participation, wage gains and the industries generating jobs. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% for July and 3.5% from a year earlier, a pace described as consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

Labor-force participation fell to 61.5% in June, its lowest level since March 2021. Outside the pandemic era, that was the lowest reading since June 1976. Participation among workers aged 25 to 54 also dropped to its lowest level since December 2023, prompting scrutiny of whether the decline reflected seasonal distortions or deeper weakness in a labor market where hiring and layoffs have both been limited.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook described conditions as a “low-hire, low-fire equilibrium,” saying low layoffs have helped keep unemployment steady while creating challenges for new entrants. Citigroup economists expect unemployment to rise above 4.5% in coming months and foresee three rate cuts by January 2027. Vanguard economists, whose 401(k) data points to a July payroll gain of 18,000, said weak hiring could extend into autumn.