With the 2024 presidential election fast approaching, Pennsylvania, once considered a surefire win for Democrats, is proving to be one of the most hotly contested battleground states. Former President Donald Trump has mounted a formidable campaign, putting Vice President Kamala Harris on the defensive in a race that could make or break her path to the White House. The state, which boasts 19 Electoral College votes, holds the potential to tip the election either way, and both parties are pouring resources into securing a victory there.
Harris’s campaign has followed in the footsteps of President Joe Biden’s 2020 strategy, focusing on the so-called “Great Lakes states”-Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These states represent crucial electoral territory, and winning them would offer Harris much-needed breathing room, especially if she loses key Sun Belt states like Arizona and Nevada. However, as the race tightens, Pennsylvania has become far from a guaranteed win, with Trump pulling ahead in several key areas.
Kamala Harris’s campaign did not expect Trump to present such a significant challenge in Pennsylvania. Polls show a much closer race than Democrats anticipated, forcing Harris to rethink her strategy in the final stretch of the campaign.
While recent polling from The New York Times and Sienna College gives Harris a slim four-point lead, doubts remain about the accuracy of such projections. Pollster Nate Cohn has even acknowledged that some data might be biased toward Democrats, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the actual state of the race. Emerson College Polling provides a more precarious picture, showing Harris ahead by only one point- a virtual dead heat when accounting for the margin of error.
Political pundits, such as Ryan Girdusky, argue that Trump could be outperforming these polls. His base in Pennsylvania, particularly among white seniors who traditionally lean Democratic in surveys, might be more supportive of Trump than polls indicate. This discrepancy between polling and reality has become a recurring theme, not only in Pennsylvania but across several battleground states. Polls often fail to account for low-propensity voters-those less likely to participate in surveys but crucial to election outcomes.
Even Democratic leaders are acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the Pennsylvania race. In a candid discussion at The Atlantic Festival, Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman warned his fellow Democrats not to take the state for granted. He pointed out that Trump’s influence in the state has deepened since the 2020 election and that the former president has a unique hold over Pennsylvania voters.
“Trump has created a special kind of a hold … and he’s remade the party, and he has a special kind of place in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said. His remarks capture the deep-rooted connection Trump has forged with the state’s electorate, which was once considered reliably Democratic. Fetterman went on to joke about the omnipresence of Trump signs, calling them the “state flower,” reflecting Trump’s staying power among voters who feel left behind by traditional Democratic policies.
Fetterman’s warning should not be taken lightly. Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, particularly in rural Pennsylvania, cannot be underestimated. He has successfully tapped into their grievances, promising a return to a bygone era of manufacturing and job security. Meanwhile, Harris is facing increasing pressure to find a way to break through in a state where Democratic dominance has been steadily eroding.
Trump’s resurgence in Pennsylvania isn’t a solo effort. He’s backed by a robust volunteer network, with organizations like Early Vote Action and The Pennsylvania Chase working tirelessly to flip the state red. Early Vote Action founder Scott Pressler has been at the forefront of closing the voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans. Pressler’s efforts are paying off: in the span of a week, Democrats’ voter registration advantage shrunk from 343,071 to 338,396, signaling momentum for Republicans.
Pressler’s work has also seen tangible results on the ground. Several historically Democratic counties, including Bucks County, have now flipped red. Beaver County is also trending in favor of Republicans, a significant development in a state where small margins can have large impacts. Luzerne County, a key battleground within the battleground, has also flipped, with Republicans now holding a narrow lead of 83 voter registrations.
Ballot-chasing efforts are also contributing to Trump’s gains. Cliff Maloney, the founder of The Pennsylvania Chase, is spearheading a campaign to counter Democrats’ traditionally strong mail-in ballot operations. In the 2020 election, Democrats held a significant advantage in mail-in ballots, but this time around, that lead has been cut nearly in half. While Biden had a 776,000 mail-in ballot request advantage in 2020, Harris’s campaign is struggling to replicate that success, trailing with only a 486,000-ballot lead in 2024. Maloney has pointed out that GOP mail-in requests are only down by about 70,000, compared to Harris’s much larger drop-off of 360,101 requests compared to Biden in 2020.
The future of Harris’s campaign in Pennsylvania and other Great Lakes states hinges on low-propensity voters, who played a pivotal role in Trump’s surprise 2016 victory. These voters, often disengaged from politics, don’t necessarily show up in polling data but can determine the outcome on Election Day. Trump’s appeal to these voters-particularly in economically distressed regions-could spell trouble for Harris if her campaign fails to mobilize its base at the same scale Biden did in 2020.
Pennsylvania’s “blue wall” of Democratic support is more fragile than it appears, especially with a candidate like Harris who struggles to connect with the state’s working-class and rural voters. Trump, on the other hand, continues to harness the anger and frustration many Pennsylvanians feel toward the political establishment, positioning himself as the anti-elite champion of forgotten Americans.
As the race tightens, Pennsylvania remains a microcosm of the larger 2024 election. For Harris, a win here could provide the margin she needs to secure the presidency. But Trump’s unexpectedly strong performance, coupled with an energized Republican base and an effective ground game, is making Pennsylvania a far tougher battleground than anticipated.
With both sides aware of the high stakes, Pennsylvania’s role in determining the next president of the United States has never been more critical. Trump’s unexpected resurgence in the state shows that Harris cannot afford to take any state for granted, especially one as pivotal as Pennsylvania. The next few months will reveal whether Harris can rebuild the “blue wall” or if Trump’s return to the political stage will once again upend expectations.
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