Arabic version: المعارضة الكردية تزن الثقة في الدعم الأمريكي للاحتجاجات في إيران
Kurdish opposition groups are grappling with uncertainty regarding U.S. support following President Donald Trump’s call for Iranians to rise against the Islamic Republic. Analysts suggest that the lack of clarity in U.S. and Israeli military objectives is causing hesitation among these groups, as they consider the implications of potentially joining a conflict against Tehran. According to Al Jazeera, the Iranian Kurdish opposition has a history of organization and military experience, making them a potentially critical ally in any uprising.
The Kurdish groups, which have established political networks and combat experience, have recently united under the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan. This coalition aims to coordinate efforts against the Iranian government from their bases in northern Iraq. However, analysts warn that Iranian Kurdish forces, estimated at around 10,000 fighters, would be heavily reliant on U.S. or Israeli support, particularly in the form of airstrikes, given the overwhelming size of Iranian ground forces, estimated at around half a million.
Concerns about past U.S. betrayals linger among Kurdish leaders. Historical precedents, such as the U.S. abandonment of Kurdish forces after the 1991 Gulf War and during the fight against ISIS, have led to skepticism about Washington’s commitment to Kurdish interests. Political analysts emphasize that any Kurdish offensive against Iran must involve the Kurdistan Regional Government’s support to avoid severe repercussions from Tehran.
In light of these uncertainties, some Kurdish analysts express cautious optimism about potential U.S. backing for Iranian Kurdish forces. However, there remains significant apprehension that a future agreement between Washington and Tehran could further marginalize Kurdish groups, leaving them vulnerable to repression from a renewed Iranian government. The situation is complicated by Iran’s recent missile strikes targeting the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan and other Kurdish opposition groups in northern Iraq, highlighting the dangers these factions face as they contemplate their next moves.
