Arabic version: انخفاض أسعار النفط على آفاق اتفاق سلام بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران
Oil prices have fallen sharply as optimism surrounds a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran, which could bring an end to the US-Israel war with Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during his visit to India, indicated that negotiators have a “pretty solid thing on the table,” suggesting that an agreement might be reached on Monday. According to BBC News, Brent crude fell 5.5% to $97.90 a barrel, while US-traded crude dropped 5.9% to $90.93 on Monday morning.
President Donald Trump has hinted that a key aspect of the deal would involve reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the conflict began on February 28. This waterway is vital for global oil and liquefied natural gas transport, accounting for about 20% of the world’s supply. Trump stated that negotiations are in their final stages and emphasized the importance of careful deliberation to avoid mistakes.
Despite the optimism, there remains caution regarding the actualization of the deal. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei noted that while US and Iranian positions have been converging in the last week, this does not guarantee resolution on all critical issues. He also criticized the US for making contradictory statements.
Global energy markets have faced volatility since early March due to threats from Iran against ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Although crude oil prices have decreased, they remain significantly higher than before the war, when Brent was trading at around $70 a barrel. Analysts suggest that even if a deal is reached, oil markets will likely remain tight through 2027 due to the time needed to restore normal oil flows and repair damaged facilities.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock index rose above 65,000 for the first time, reflecting investor confidence that the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen. Both the UK and US energy and financial markets were closed on Monday for public holidays, further impacting market activity. Industry experts remain cautious, suggesting that even with a peace agreement, shipping lines may hesitate to return vessels to the Persian Gulf due to lingering uncertainties.
