On September 19, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met with Niger’s ambassador to Moscow, Abdou Sidikou Isa, for critical talks aimed at addressing the ongoing turmoil in the Sahel region of Africa. This region, a battleground for Islamic militant groups since 2012, has seen worsening violence, resulting in thousands of deaths and millions displaced. With the situation reaching a critical point, the discussions emphasized both security cooperation and the broader “African agenda,” which seeks to foster stronger Russian-African relations ahead of the upcoming Russia-Africa Partnership Forum in Sochi this November.
The Sahel has been a hotspot of militant activity since the jihadist insurgency erupted in northern Mali in 2012. What began as a localized rebellion quickly spread, entrenching itself in neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Niger. The conflict, largely driven by groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, has spiraled into a full-blown regional crisis. In 2023 alone, more than 12,000 people-mostly civilians-were killed, and at least 2.8 million others have been displaced, according to reports from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).
The most recent violent episode underscores the region’s fragility. Just days before the Moscow meeting, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group claimed responsibility for an attack on a military training school in Mali’s capital, Bamako. The assault left around 70 people dead, according to Reuters, marking one of the deadliest incidents in the region this year. Mali’s military government confirmed the attack but withheld specific casualty figures.
The persistent instability in the Sahel can be traced to various factors, including weak governance, widespread poverty, and external interference, all of which have contributed to the growth of extremist networks. These militant groups have exploited local grievances, gained control over vast rural areas, and carried out relentless assaults on military forces, government institutions, and civilians.
Russia’s involvement in Africa, particularly in security-related issues, has been steadily growing in recent years. The meeting between Bogdanov and Isa comes at a pivotal moment, as the military regimes of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have been increasingly seeking Moscow’s support in their battle against jihadist insurgents. These three Sahel nations, all of which have experienced military coups, have severed defense ties with their former Western partners, especially France and the United States, accusing them of failing to quell the violence that has plagued the region for over a decade.
In 2022, the three countriesM-ali, Burkina Faso, and Niger-formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a confederation aimed at coordinating regional efforts to combat terrorism. This alliance has since turned to Russia for support, particularly in terms of security cooperation, as they seek an alternative to the military assistance provided by their former colonial power, France. Russian mercenaries, including those from the controversial Wagner Group, have been deployed in Mali as part of this cooperation, further solidifying Russia’s presence in the region.
During the September 19 discussions, Russian-Nigerien cooperation was a focal point, as both countries are preparing for the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum scheduled to take place in Sochi in November. The forum is expected to highlight Moscow’s growing influence in Africa, especially as Russia seeks to expand its diplomatic and military ties with African nations amid global geopolitical shifts.
The withdrawal of France and the US from the Sahel region has left a vacuum, one that Russia is quickly filling. In contrast to Western powers, Russia has presented itself as a reliable partner, offering military assistance without the perceived strings attached to Western aid. This has resonated with the military rulers of the Sahel, who have expressed frustration with what they see as the failure of Western powers to deliver tangible results in the fight against terrorism.
General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who became Niger’s interim president following a coup in July 2023, has been vocal about the need for alternative partnerships. Following the deadly attack in Bamako, Tchiani expressed solidarity with Mali’s interim president, Colonel Assimi Goita, condemning what he referred to as a “malicious terrorist attack.” In a statement issued by the Nigerien Press Services, Tchiani also suggested that the attack was part of a broader conspiracy involving foreign powers aimed at destabilizing the AES and undermining efforts to restore peace and governance in the region.
This anti-Western sentiment has been further fueled by accusations from the Sahel allies against Ukraine. In late July, Ukrainian officials allegedly provided intelligence to insurgents, leading to an ambush that killed numerous Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner contractors. These accusations, which have yet to be independently verified, prompted Mali and Niger to sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine and submit a formal complaint to the UN Security Council, demanding international action.
The ongoing instability in the Sahel poses a significant threat to the broader West African region and beyond. The rise of militant groups, coupled with the growing influence of external actors like Russia, has created a volatile situation with far-reaching implications. For Russia, deeper involvement in the Sahel represents an opportunity to expand its geopolitical influence in Africa, particularly as it faces isolation from Western countries due to its actions in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s support for military governments in the Sahel aligns with its broader strategy of positioning itself as an alternative to Western powers in regions where traditional alliances have faltered.
For the Sahel nations, the turn toward Russia is seen as a necessary step to combat an existential threat. However, this shift also raises concerns about the long-term impact of Russian military involvement, particularly given the controversial nature of the Wagner Group, which has been accused of human rights violations in various conflict zones.
As the situation in the Sahel continues to evolve, the Moscow-Niger talks underscore the growing importance of Russian-African relations in addressing security challenges. With the upcoming Russia-Africa Partnership Forum in Sochi, both sides will likely seek to solidify their cooperation, setting the stage for what could be a new chapter in the Sahel’s fight against Islamic militancy.
The Sahel region remains one of the most unstable areas in the world, with violence driven by Islamic militancy showing no signs of abating. The recent discussions between Russia and Niger highlight the growing role that Moscow is playing in the region’s security landscape. As the Sahel nations continue to pivot away from their traditional Western partners, the future of the region will likely be shaped by the evolving dynamics between local military rulers, external actors like Russia, and the relentless insurgent groups seeking to destabilize the region further.
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