On September 17, 2024, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that Russia’s decision to significantly expand its military personnel is a direct response to the growing threats from an “extremely hostile” West and an increasingly “unstable” East. The military expansion, formalized by a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin, will see the Russian armed forces grow to nearly 2.4 million personnel, including 1.5 million active service members.
The move is seen as a strategic response to what Moscow perceives as heightened security threats around its borders, driven by NATO’s expansion and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which Russia views as a proxy war orchestrated by the West.
Russia’s decision to increase its military personnel comes amidst a volatile global security environment. According to Peskov, the primary motivation for this expansion is the “number of threats” facing the country along its borders, especially from Western powers, which Russia has long perceived as undermining its national security.
In his statement, Peskov emphasized the West’s aggressive posture towards Russia, which he described as “extremely hostile.” This sentiment has been a consistent theme in Russian foreign policy for years, especially since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014. Moscow has been vocal in its opposition to NATO’s enlargement, particularly the alliance’s intentions to include Ukraine and other former Soviet states. Russia views such expansion as a direct encroachment on its sphere of influence and a violation of agreements made in the post-Cold War era.
The Kremlin has consistently argued that NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe, coupled with military support for Ukraine, represents an existential threat to Russia. This perception was a significant factor in Russia’s decision to launch its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, which the Kremlin frames as a defensive measure aimed at protecting Russian-speaking populations and maintaining its security buffer.
Russia’s leadership has increasingly framed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war between Moscow and the West, particularly the United States. Peskov reiterated this position, accusing Washington of intentionally escalating the situation in Ukraine. Moscow believes that the West, especially the US, is using Ukraine as a tool to weaken Russia, waging a war “to the last Ukrainian.”
This proxy war narrative plays a crucial role in Russia’s domestic and international rhetoric, as it seeks to portray the conflict as one in which Russia is defending itself against Western aggression. The Kremlin’s consistent message is that the US and its allies are not only fueling the conflict by supplying Ukraine with military equipment but are also manipulating Ukraine to serve their geopolitical interests at Russia’s expense.
From Moscow’s perspective, the US has little interest in resolving the conflict diplomatically and is instead committed to prolonging the fighting to weaken Russia. This belief has been reinforced by continued Western military aid to Kyiv, including advanced weapons systems and financial support.
For decades, Russia has expressed concerns over NATO’s eastward expansion, which it views as a betrayal of assurances made in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian officials have often cited verbal promises from Western leaders that NATO would not expand into former Warsaw Pact countries, let alone former Soviet republics.
However, since the dissolution of the USSR, NATO has expanded significantly, incorporating several Eastern European and Baltic states. From Moscow’s perspective, this expansion has placed NATO’s military infrastructure alarmingly close to its borders, diminishing the strategic depth that Russia has historically relied upon for its security.
The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO is a red line for Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly warned that such a development would constitute an unacceptable security threat, as it would bring NATO forces directly to Russia’s southwestern border. It was Ukraine’s intention to pursue NATO membership that, in part, triggered the current conflict. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is therefore seen by Moscow as a preemptive strike to prevent NATO from gaining a foothold in the country.
While much of Russia’s focus has been on the West, Peskov also alluded to the growing instability in the East as a contributing factor to the military expansion. Although he did not specify which threats he was referring to, it is likely that Russia is keeping a close watch on developments in Asia, particularly the rise of China as a global power and tensions surrounding North Korea.
Russia shares a long border with China and has, in recent years, sought to strengthen its ties with Beijing, especially in the face of Western sanctions. However, the growing power and influence of China in the region could also pose challenges for Russia, particularly in terms of maintaining its own influence in Central Asia, a region that both Moscow and Beijing consider within their spheres of interest.
Additionally, North Korea’s unpredictable behavior, coupled with the nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula, adds another layer of complexity to the security environment in Asia. While Russia has historically maintained a cooperative relationship with Pyongyang, the volatility of the region remains a concern.
This latest military expansion is not the first time Russia has increased its armed forces in response to external threats. In December 2023, Moscow boosted its military personnel to just over 2.2 million, including 1.3 million troops. The steady increase in military strength over the past few years reflects the Kremlin’s growing sense of vulnerability and the need to project power both domestically and internationally.
Russia has also been modernizing its military capabilities, investing in advanced weapons systems, including hypersonic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as improving its cyber warfare and space capabilities. These developments are part of a broader strategy to ensure that Russia remains a formidable military power capable of defending its interests in an increasingly multipolar world.
Russia’s decision to expand its military is a clear signal of its intent to bolster its defenses in the face of what it perceives as growing external threats. The “extremely hostile” environment in the West and the “unstable” conditions in the East necessitate what Moscow sees as appropriate countermeasures.
For Russia, the military buildup is not just about increasing the number of personnel but is also part of a broader strategy to ensure its security and maintain its status as a global power. The expansion reflects the Kremlin’s belief that the challenges it faces, particularly from NATO and the US, are unlikely to diminish in the near future.
As tensions between Russia and the West continue to escalate, the military buildup raises concerns about the potential for further conflict, not only in Ukraine but also in other regions where Russia’s interests may come into conflict with those of the West. The global security environment remains fragile, and Russia’s latest move suggests that Moscow is preparing for a long-term struggle to defend its national security and sovereignty.
