German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reportedly seeking to re-establish direct communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that highlights Germany’s continued interest in diplomacy amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. According to Die Zeit, Scholz hopes to arrange a phone call with Putin before the G20 summit scheduled for mid-November 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This would mark the first direct communication between the two leaders since December 2022. With diplomatic channels strained by the war, Scholz’s call for dialogue has raised questions about the potential effectiveness of such outreach and its broader implications for European diplomacy.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany has been walking a tightrope between supporting Ukraine militarily and seeking diplomatic solutions to end the conflict. Scholz’s stance reflects this delicate balancing act. Germany, the second-largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the United States, has provided over €10 billion ($11.19 billion) in military supplies to Kyiv between January 2022 and June 2024. Despite this, Scholz has repeatedly advocated for diplomacy, indicating that peace in Ukraine remains a priority for his administration.
In March 2023, Scholz told Politico that he had not spoken to Putin since December 2022, but acknowledged that the two had previously communicated more frequently. His desire to reopen communication reflects the growing frustration in parts of Europe over the prolonged conflict, which shows no signs of resolution. Scholz’s approach seems rooted in the belief that direct dialogue, however strained, may still offer a path to de-escalation.
Scholz’s previous conversations with Putin have been marked by significant tension. The last time the two leaders spoke, in December 2022, the hour-long phone call focused on Putin defending Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and criticizing the West’s support for Kyiv. According to the Kremlin, Putin used the call to explain the “logic” behind Russia’s invasion, while Scholz urged the Russian president to withdraw troops and seek peace. These calls have not led to any tangible progress in halting the war, raising doubts about the potential success of any renewed efforts by Scholz.
In May 2023, Scholz reiterated his intention to speak with Putin “in due course” during an interview with the Koelner Stadt-Anzeiger, yet months have passed without further communication. The German chancellor’s calls for peace, including his push for a diplomatic conference with Russia’s participation, have so far failed to gain traction.
In September 2023, Scholz once again emphasized the need for peace in Ukraine and pushed for a new international conference aimed at finding a diplomatic solution. However, his proposal contrasts with earlier international meetings, such as the one hosted by Switzerland in June 2024, which failed to produce meaningful outcomes. That summit was notably undermined by Russia’s absence, as Moscow was not invited. Scholz’s idea of including Russia this time reflects a pragmatic shift, acknowledging that any lasting peace agreement will likely require Russian involvement.
Despite Scholz’s diplomatic overtures, significant obstacles remain. The Kremlin has consistently dismissed the idea of peace talks, stating that the conditions for negotiations are not in place. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, emphasized in September that Moscow has yet to hear any meaningful proposals from “the country that is actually directing this entire process,” a thinly veiled reference to the United States. This suggests that Russia views Western nations, particularly the US, as the key decision-makers in the conflict, casting doubt on whether talks with individual European leaders like Scholz would yield progress.
Moreover, Germany’s own military support for Ukraine complicates Scholz’s diplomatic efforts. While advocating for peace, Berlin has continued to send military aid to Kyiv, a policy that undoubtedly shapes Moscow’s perception of Germany’s role in the conflict. Scholz’s government has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, and the extent of German military support has strained relations between Berlin and Moscow. In this context, Scholz’s call for dialogue could be seen as contradictory, with Germany attempting to play both the role of a peacemaker and a military backer of one side in the conflict.
Adding to the complexity, Germany’s economic ties with Russia have been deeply affected by the conflict. The German economy, long dependent on cheap Russian natural gas, has struggled with the economic fallout of cutting off energy imports from its eastern neighbor. The reliance on Russian gas had been a pillar of Germany’s economic strength, driving its industrial output for decades. The decision to reject Russian fuel in response to the invasion has hit Germany’s energy-intensive industries hard, contributing to an economic slowdown. This economic strain could serve as an additional motivation for Scholz to seek dialogue, as easing tensions with Russia could potentially help Germany recover some economic stability.
Scholz’s goal of speaking with Putin before the G20 summit in November could serve multiple purposes. For one, it would allow Germany to present itself as a serious advocate for peace during a high-profile international gathering. Should the call happen, Scholz may hope to use the summit as a platform to push for a broader diplomatic initiative involving both Ukraine and Russia.
However, the likelihood of such an initiative succeeding remains uncertain. Russia’s ongoing military operations, coupled with its distrust of Western intentions, suggest that Moscow may be unwilling to engage in substantive talks, particularly if they are seen as a means to pressure Putin into concessions. Moreover, the absence of clear signals from the US, which Russia perceives as controlling the broader Western response, diminishes the chances of fruitful negotiations.
Chancellor Scholz’s intention to reopen dialogue with Putin is a reflection of Germany’s broader diplomatic strategy, which seeks to balance military aid to Ukraine with calls for peace. However, the path to any meaningful resolution remains fraught with obstacles, including Russia’s intransigence and the complex dynamics between the US, Europe, and Ukraine. Whether Scholz’s outreach will lead to any tangible diplomatic breakthroughs remains to be seen, but it highlights the persistent challenges that European leaders face in navigating a conflict with global ramifications. As the war drags on, Germany’s role as both a donor to Ukraine and a potential mediator will continue to be scrutinized.
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