Since the Syrian crisis erupted in 2011, Turkey has been inextricably tied to the conflict due to its geographical proximity, historical connections, and strategic interests. From the very beginning, Turkey emerged as one of the staunchest supporters of the opposition against the Assad regime, offering both political and military backing. This commitment led Turkey to become the primary base for the Syrian opposition-in-exile, playing a crucial role in the formation and sustenance of the opposition’s political and military structures. However, as the conflict has dragged on for over a decade, Turkey’s position has become increasingly complex, involving not only the support of the opposition but also managing the fallout of the crisis within its own borders and navigating the intricate web of international and regional dynamics.
Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict began in earnest shortly after the outbreak of protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2011. With a policy aimed at supporting the overthrow of Assad, Ankara quickly aligned itself with the opposition forces. Turkey hosted the first meetings of the Syrian National Council (SNC), a coalition of opposition groups formed to present a unified front against the Assad regime. The SNC was predominantly composed of members ideologically aligned with the Turkish government, and this close relationship underscored Turkey’s commitment to the Syrian opposition’s cause.
In addition to political support, Turkey also provided significant military backing to the opposition. The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main armed wing of the opposition, established its headquarters in Turkey in October 2011. This move signified Turkey’s deepening involvement in the military aspect of the conflict, as it allowed the FSA to operate from Turkish territory, receiving logistical support and a safe haven from which to launch operations against the Assad regime.
Turkey’s efforts were not limited to military and political backing; it also played a pivotal role in organizing international support for the Syrian opposition. Ankara was instrumental in the formation of the “Friends of Syria” group, a coalition of Arab and Western nations that aimed to facilitate the removal of Assad from power. The group’s meetings, several of which were hosted by Turkey, provided a platform for the Syrian opposition to gain international recognition and support.
Despite Turkey’s significant efforts, the Syrian opposition remained deeply fragmented from the outset. The SNC, although the primary civilian coalition-in-exile, was plagued by internal divisions that reflected the broader sectarian and ideological divides within Syrian society. Kurdish, Islamist, and secular factions within the opposition had vastly different visions for Syria’s future, which often led to infighting and undermined the opposition’s effectiveness.
During the early years of the crisis, as a diplomatic correspondent, I witnessed these divisions firsthand. At the pivotal “Friends of Syria” meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, in December 2012, the council was transformed into a more inclusive coalition, and a new leader was appointed. However, it was evident that deep-seated rivalries among the various factions would continue to hinder the opposition’s ability to present a united front against Assad.
These internal divisions were compounded by external factors. Rivalries among regional backers of the opposition, particularly between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, further exacerbated the fragmentation. Each of these countries supported different factions within the opposition, leading to a lack of coherence and unity in the anti-Assad camp. Moreover, the opposition’s overreliance on external actors for funding and political recognition created a situation where factions competed for resources and status rather than uniting under a common banner.
As the Syrian conflict has dragged on, the political opposition’s effectiveness has waned considerably. Three key shortcomings have hampered their efforts: weak representation, overreliance on external actors, and the declining significance of the political process. These issues have diminished Syrians’ confidence in the opposition, reducing its appeal as a legitimate political representative and weakening its ability to challenge the Assad regime effectively.
Turkey’s role in the opposition’s struggles cannot be overlooked. While Ankara provided significant support, the deep divisions within the opposition, coupled with the conflicting interests of regional and international actors, ultimately limited Turkey’s ability to consolidate the opposition into a coherent and effective force. Moreover, Turkey’s close ties to the Islamist factions within the opposition alienated other groups, particularly secular and Kurdish factions, further complicating efforts to present a unified front against Assad.
The Syrian crisis has had profound spillover effects on Turkey, particularly in terms of the refugee crisis and security threats. As the conflict intensified, the number of Syrian refugees entering Turkey skyrocketed, placing enormous strain on the country’s resources. Turkey’s open-door policy for Syrians fleeing the conflict was a key component of its Syria policy, reflecting both humanitarian concerns and the strategic goal of supporting the opposition. However, this policy also brought significant challenges, including rising tensions between refugees and local communities and increased pressure on public services.
In addition to the refugee crisis, Turkey has faced direct security threats from terrorist groups that have found fertile ground in the chaos of the Syrian conflict. To address these threats, Turkey has conducted several cross-border military operations in northern Syria, aiming to establish a buffer zone to protect its borders and prevent the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region along its southern frontier. These operations have brought Turkey into direct conflict with both Kurdish forces and the Assad regime, further complicating its involvement in the Syrian crisis.
As the Syrian conflict enters its 14th year, Turkey’s Syria policy is evolving once again. In a recent meeting in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with representatives of the main Syrian opposition groups to discuss a political solution to the war. The meeting took place against the backdrop of potential Turkish-Syrian normalization talks, with Ankara attempting to reassure the opposition that it will not abandon them even if relations with Damascus are normalized.
This new phase of Turkey’s Syria policy is perhaps the most challenging yet. Turkey is attempting to balance its longstanding support for the opposition with the need to resolve the refugee issue peacefully and maintain security in the areas of northern Syria it controls. However, the existing divisions within the Syrian opposition and the varying levels of compliance with Turkey’s directives raise questions about Ankara’s ability to control these groups in the future, particularly if and when Turkey and Syria normalize their relations.
Turkey’s evolving Syria policy reflects the complex and multifaceted nature of the Syrian crisis. Over the past 13 years, Turkey has navigated a treacherous path, balancing its support for the opposition with the need to address the spillover effects of the conflict within its own borders. As it enters this new phase, Turkey faces the daunting task of opening a new chapter with Damascus while managing the myriad challenges that have arisen from its deep involvement in the Syrian crisis. No other country involved in the Syrian conflict faces such a complex and difficult situation, underscoring the unique and challenging position Turkey occupies in this ongoing and seemingly intractable conflict.
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