Across Australia’s capital cities, national dwelling prices have risen by 2.5%, but this increase varies significantly by location. For example, Perth is experiencing a notable surge in housing prices, which may surpass 20% by the end of the year. This rise is attributed to strong job growth, interstate migration, and supportive government policies. However, concerns about falling commodity prices could potentially dampen the market’s momentum.
In contrast, Sydney’s housing market has seen a slight decline, with prices down 0.2% year-to-date. This drop is consistent with predictions of a continued decline due to high interest rates and a possible slowdown in population growth. Hobart is also facing a 1.9% decrease in prices, in line with forecasts of a 3% to 7% drop. SQM Research expects ongoing market weakness and potential further declines.
Canberra has experienced an unexpected 0.8% decrease in dwelling prices, contrary to earlier expectations of more severe declines. Despite an initially stronger performance, recent data suggests a weakening trend, which might align with the initial pessimistic outlook.
On a more positive note, Brisbane has seen surprising growth, with housing prices anticipated to rise between 15% and 20% by the end of 2024, far exceeding previous forecasts. Similarly, Adelaide has surpassed expectations, with a 12% increase in prices so far this year, and is projected to reach 15% to 20% growth by year-end, driven by a robust economy and relatively affordable housing.
In contrast, Darwin’s market has remained stagnant, with a 2% drop in prices over the past year due to high stock levels and a sluggish local economy. This aligns with SQM’s forecast of a flat to declining market.
Melbourne is also seeing a downturn in its housing market, matching predictions of a 1% to 5% decrease. Auction clearance rates and rental prices have weakened, with little sign of a reversal.
Despite high interest rates and inflation, Australia’s property market remains resilient. Sydney’s median house price has hit a new record, surpassing $1.4 million, while Brisbane has risen to become the second most expensive capital city in the country.
