Arabic version: الولايات المتحدة تواجه احتمال الانسحاب في الحرب المستمرة ضد إيران
According to Al Jazeera,
The war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, 2026, will likely end in an American retreat. The United States cannot continue the war without producing disastrous consequences, including potential destruction of regional infrastructure vital for oil, gas, and desalination.
The US – Israel war plan was a decapitation strike, sold to President Donald Trump by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad. However, this strategy has failed, as the Iranian regime did not fracture as anticipated. Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emerged with a tightened internal command and an expanded role in the national-security architecture.
Two months on, Trump and Netanyahu have no Iranian successor government under their control and no military pathway whatsoever to victory. The only path, and the one the US seems to be taking, is a retreat, with Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz and with none of the other issues between the US and Iran settled.
Several reasons explain America’s disastrous miscalculations. First, American leaders fundamentally misjudged Iran, a great civilization with 5,000 years of history, deep culture, national resilience, and pride. Second, they dramatically underestimated Iran’s technological sophistication, which includes an indigenous defense industrial base and advanced ballistic missiles. Third, military technology has shifted in a way that favors Iran, making the operational cost of imposing American will on Iran far higher than the United States can sustain.
The US policy process has become irrational, with the war decided by a small circle of presidential loyalists at Mar-a-Lago, lacking formal interagency process. This was neither a war of necessity nor a war of choice; it was a war of whim.
As the US prepares for potential withdrawal, Iran is not expected to exploit its advantages against neighboring countries. Iran has a long-term strategic interest in cooperation with its Gulf neighbors, not an ongoing war. The anticipated retreat will not signify a military victory for the US, but rather a recognition of the complexities of engaging with a historically rich and technologically adept nation.
