Arabic version: أخطاء الحسابات الأمريكية تؤدي إلى صراع مطول مع إيران

According to Al Jazeera,

The developments following the 12-day war between Iran and Israel did not lead to de-escalation, but rather to a redefinition of the conflict on a much broader scale. While volatile negotiations between Tehran and Washington continued, the gap between the two sides’ expectations deepened. Ultimately, this gap led to a decision at the White House based on an optimistic assessment: To enter a limited conflict and force Iran into a rapid retreat. But the battlefield quickly shattered that assumption. The war that was meant to be short, controlled, and manageable turned into a 40-day war of attrition, one that not only failed to achieve the initial objectives of the United States but imposed heavy military, economic, and political costs.

One significant error was the assumption that Iran would respond similarly to its brief war with Israel. The US believed that increased involvement would pressure Iran into a retreat. However, Iran’s strategic focus shifted to US bases in the region, targeting countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan instead of Israel. This change in strategy caught US officials off guard, as did Iran’s advanced military capabilities, which were underestimated by Washington.

Additionally, the US misjudged the internal dynamics within Iran. Intelligence reports had led officials to believe that the country was on the brink of collapse due to internal unrest. Contrary to these assumptions, a state of war led to social cohesion and strengthened the spirit of resistance among the Iranian populace. The notion of a “battle for national survival” galvanized public support, reinforcing Iran’s position.

The situation was further complicated by the operational coordination among Iran-aligned groups, which united against US forces. This increased battlefield complexity highlighted fractures within NATO’s support for Washington and showcased growing domestic opposition to the war within the United States. Criticism from media figures and human rights protests over civilian casualties diminished the moral legitimacy of the US military operations.

Ultimately, the combination of these miscalculations forced the US to reconsider its strategy. After 40 days of conflict, accepting Iran’s terms for negotiations became the only viable option. This war serves as a stark reminder of the perils of strategic misjudgment and the importance of accurately assessing both enemy capabilities and domestic sentiment in conflict situations.