Arabic version: تراجع مؤشر «فيكس» إلى أدنى مستوى في 2026 رغم استمرار مخاطر الأسواق

According to Cnbc, Wall Street’s VIX volatility index fell to 14.2 on Friday, its lowest level of 2026, while the S&P 500 and other equity benchmarks approached or reached record highs. The index measures expected 30-day market volatility from S&P 500 option prices, and lower readings signal calmer markets.

The S&P 500 is up about 16% year to date. But Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG’s managing director and chief market technician, said the VIX decline suggests growing complacency as markets enter the mid-August-to-mid-October period, which has historically been more difficult for stocks, particularly in mid-term election years.

Krinsky said that in every mid-term election year since 1990, the equal-weight S&P has suffered a pullback of at least 7% from its Aug. 18 average peak through mid-October. He also called 2026 an anomaly, noting there has been no 80% downside-volume day since last October, compared with an average of 21 in a typical year.

He said investors may want to reduce risk or hedge broad equity exposure. Krinsky also pointed to long-end Treasury yields near cycle highs despite recent inflation-related data that included job figures, CPI and PPI.

Susquehanna described the volatility reset as substantial, with two-month implied volatility at 13.5%, near pre-Iran-war levels, even as cross-asset and geopolitical risks remain active. IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph cited the unresolved Middle East conflict, pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and July’s unexpected 0.6% decline in retail sales as signs of risks beneath the market’s rally.