Arabic version: وول ستريت تراقب النفط والعوائد وإنفاق المستهلكين

According to Cnbc, a weekend ramp-up in fighting between the United States and Iran has led Wall Street to reconsider the war’s economic impact. The United States completed its 10th straight night of strikes against Iran on Monday, after the Houthis in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. Investors have largely brushed off the latest tensions: the S&P 500 fell only marginally on Monday and remained 2% below its June all-time high.

Markets are focused on the duration of higher energy prices and bond yields. Brent crude briefly topped $90 a barrel on Monday and hovered just below that level on Tuesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4.6% on Monday and remained near that mark Tuesday. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said earnings estimates could need to be trimmed if crude stays above $85 or $90 through year-end. He said the S&P 500 could enter a correction in a worst-case scenario.

Technology, which has a 38% weighting in the S&P 500, is relatively insulated from higher energy prices, while energy accounts for 3%, according to S&P Global. Hogan also identified financials and health care as sectors with secular tailwinds. Energy companies and logistics businesses reliant on fuel could be among the biggest laggards. Ryanair said weak first-quarter profits reflected delayed bookings linked to the Middle East crisis.

Economists warned that rising fuel costs could pressure consumers and the broader economy. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the average American household has lost around $1,100 so far from the war through higher energy costs and military expenses. AAA reported gasoline reached $4 per gallon Monday for the first time in more than a month. Consumer Edge analyst Michael Gunther said value-focused and driving-dependent shoppers could become more selective, while warehouse clubs such as Costco and Sam’s Club could gain share as drivers seek value.