Arabic version: من المتوقع أن تصل سكان أستراليا الغربية إلى 4 ملايين بحلول عام 2043

Western Australia’s population is projected to reach 4 million by 2043, according to new modelling by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC). The report indicates that the state’s population will increase by one million over the next 17 years, following the milestone of 3 million expected by the end of 2024. However, a significant housing shortage could impede this growth.

The BCEC report highlights a direct correlation between population growth and iron ore prices, alongside mining investment. Professor Alan Duncan, director of the BCEC, cautioned that the anticipated boom in population could be hindered if housing targets are not met. He noted that Western Australia has been consistently falling short of the required 24,000 to 25,000 new properties annually, with only about 22,000 completed in the last year.

Duncan emphasized that the housing shortfall is not solely due to incoming migration, but rather a long-standing issue of insufficient housing supply. The report aims to provide a realistic view of growth and encourage proactive infrastructure planning.

The modelling reveals that a 10 percent increase in iron ore prices could lead to an influx of approximately 283 more interstate migrants to WA every three months. This relationship underscores the mining sector’s impact on population dynamics in the state.

Furthermore, WA is in competition with Queensland for skilled labor, particularly in mining and construction sectors. With the upcoming 2032 Brisbane Olympics, the demand for construction workers is expected to intensify, potentially reversing the flow of workers from Queensland to Western Australia. Professor Duncan pointed out the need for strategic workforce planning to meet the demands of both states.

Data from the report shows that 80.6 percent of WA’s population resides in the Greater Perth area, which has experienced a growth rate of 2.4 percent in the past year, significantly outpacing regional areas. According to ABC News, this concentration in metropolitan areas poses additional challenges for housing and infrastructure development.