Prediction Market Traders Turn to Bots and Faster Data
Prediction Market Traders Turn to Bots and Faster Data

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Arabic version: متداولو أسواق التنبؤ يلجؤون إلى الروبوتات والبيانات الأسرع

According to Cnbc, active prediction-market traders are using AI bots, custom software and even antennas to seek an advantage across a growing number of contracts. Polymarket and Kalshi alone can have more than 100,000 active markets, a volume that makes manual monitoring difficult and has helped motivate some traders to work on the platforms full-time.

Logan Sudeith, 26, became a full-time prediction-market trader less than a year ago and said he collected $250,000 in one month. For the Super Bowl, he bought an antenna to watch commercials with lower latency than online streaming services, allowing him to trade contracts on companies’ ads and what would be said in them.

Kenneth Deneau, 32, uses Anthropic-owned language model Claude to scan newsletters and Discord servers for potentially useful information. Earlier this year, he used Pacer, a court-record database, while researching an event contract concerning when President Donald Trump would fire former Attorney General Pam Bondi. Deneau became a full-time trader after trading volume surged on Kalshi and Polymarket last fall.

Atlanta-based data engineer Steve Farmer built an AI bot to trade Kalshi’s economic-related event contracts throughout the day. Farmer said the bot has about a 70% win rate, while cautioning that it is likely not a long-term investment strategy. Michael Boss, who began trading full-time in February, uses software that places many trades across markets and said discretionary activity can be systematized.

Platforms and startups are also seeking to broaden access to trading tools. Kalshi recently launched its Pro terminal, which it says helps users place trades faster and view individual-market data. Kairos, a trading terminal backed by Andreessen Horowitz, lets users trade across exchanges including Kalshi and Polymarket while viewing contracts, price moves, real-time data and headlines.

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