Arabic version: تقدم أبوت يتقلص في أسواق التنبؤ بسباق حاكم تكساس

According to Cnbc, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott remains favored to defeat Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in Tuesday’s gubernatorial election, though prediction-market traders have reduced his perceived advantage. Political observers are also watching the contest for evidence of a voter backlash against artificial intelligence data center development.

On Kalshi, speculators gave Abbott a 60% chance of winning as he seeks a fourth term. Hinojosa’s odds rose from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday, with much of the increase coming in recent weeks as polls showed a tightening race. On Polymarket, her chances climbed from as low as 5% in late July to 39% on Monday.

The platforms resolve their contracts using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office. Their odds and gambling platforms do not use the methodologies of traditional political polling and are not substitutes for polls. Hinojosa is seeking to become Texas’ first Democratic governor in more than 30 years.

Data centers have become a central issue in the race. Hinojosa has criticized Abbott over his earlier support for their expansion. In November 2025, Abbott praised Google’s $40 billion investment, including three new data center campuses, and said Texas would be the “epicenter of AI development.”

Abbott later became more skeptical as voter opinion of data centers soured. In August, he ordered an audit of facilities seeking to connect to Texas’ grid. In September, he halted approval of all data center-related permits pending an audit of the existing waitlist. Hinojosa’s campaign calls for an immediate moratorium until the legislature establishes guardrails for the industry. More than 7.7 million Texans had cast ballots after in-person early voting ended Friday.