Arabic version: محللون يشككون في قدرة إسرائيل على إسقاط الحكومة الإيرانية

According to Al Jazeera, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said overthrowing Iran’s government remains Israel’s “primary objective” before national elections next week. His comments followed talks with United States President Donald Trump and a visit to Israel by Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, but Netanyahu gave no indication that Washington had agreed to join another offensive or a campaign against Iran’s leadership.

Analysts said Israel has the capacity to damage Iranian targets but lacks a clear path from military action to regime change. Urban Coningham of the Royal United Services Institute said Israel’s weapons stockpiles and aerial refuelling capabilities could allow it to establish air superiority and strike Iran again. Netanyahu acknowledged limits to airpower in March, saying a ground component would also be needed.

Caglar Kurc of Abdullah Gul University said bombing could degrade Iran’s military capabilities without fully destroying its ability to retaliate, because well-hidden systems would survive. He said removing Iran’s government would require troops to be deployed and kept on the ground for years. Coningham also said covert assets and cyberattacks carry risks, while Kurdish or Baloch armed groups do not provide a clear ground force capable of challenging the state.

Iran retains missile and antiship missile stocks, analysts said, and could impose costs on Israel through drones and other weapons. Sidharth Kaushal of RUSI said Iranian missile stockpiles likely remain sizeable. US participation is uncertain, with analysts pointing to political differences between Tel Aviv and Washington. Without US support, Israel would lack capabilities such as GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs carried by US B-2 bombers against deeply buried targets, including Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in June 2025.