Arabic version: البرازيل تشهد زيادة في صادرات النفط بسبب النزاع في الشرق الأوسط

China and India are increasingly turning to Brazil to make up for lost oil supplies as the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz. With oil harder to access and Russian supply largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are scrambling for crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable. According to Al Jazeera, Brazil has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries.

Brazil, which is already one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, has seen its crude exports to Asia rise sharply. In 2025, Asian countries imported about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Brazilian crude, a figure that rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May 2026. Analysts note that while Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia’s main oil supplier, its crude has become increasingly attractive as shipping risks rise in the Gulf.

The state oil company Petrobras has redirected its exports towards Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. More than 60 percent of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000 bpd in March. This shift is beginning to benefit Brazil’s economy, with rising crude prices expected to support the country’s trade balance.

Demand for Brazilian oil is particularly driven by China, which has significantly increased its imports. In dollar terms, the value of Brazil’s crude exports to China surged by almost 95 percent to $7.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026. India has also sharply increased purchases, with its imports averaging about 238,000 bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000 bpd in 2025. Both countries are looking for alternatives that are politically safer and physically available, reducing their exposure to Gulf shipping risks.

Brazil is also looking to deepen energy ties beyond China and India, with plans to increase crude exports to Japan and other Southeast Asian nations. As the Strait of Hormuz remains partly blocked, Brazil’s strategic value in the global oil market is expected to grow, positioning it as a key player in meeting Asia’s energy needs.