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According to Cnbc, the premium between U.S. COMEX copper futures and London Metal Exchange prices is increasingly being used as a real-time measure of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper. Copper futures reached a record high of almost $6.90 per pound last week after rising for more than a year.

The spread has traditionally been used by physical traders, banks, hedge funds, producers and consumers to benefit from temporary price differences and manage risk between the two markets. It was previously driven by developments including Chinese demand shocks and supply disruptions in South America. Societe Generale analysts say the prospect of fresh Section 232 tariffs on refined copper has changed the trade’s role.

The United States already imposes a 50% levy on imports of semi-finished copper products and certain other copper-made products. The Commerce Department has recommended a phased universal tariff on refined copper: 15% from Jan. 1, 2027, increasing to 30% on Jan. 1, 2028. Societe Generale estimates that the current COMEX premium implies a 14.6% likelihood of a 15% tariff in January 2027 and a 37% probability of a 30% duty in January 2028.

U.S. copper inflows have supported prices as traders wait for a final White House decision. The country imported more than 200,000 metric tons in July, its highest level in 12 years. ING’s Ewa Manthey said a wider premium signals greater perceived tariff risk and continues to draw metal into the U.S. She said tight mine supply and competition between the U.S. and China remain supportive for prices, while tariff uncertainty is likely to keep volatility elevated.