Arabic version: اكتساح الديمقراطيين يرفع المخاطر في التنافس التكنولوجي بين الولايات المتحدة والصين

According to Cnbc, Democrats’ midterm election sweep could raise tensions with China over Taiwan and intensify technology competition. Democrats won majorities in the House and Senate and flipped governors’ offices in states including Texas, Nevada and Iowa, though most newly elected officials will not take office until January.

Before then, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to preserve their fragile truce through planned meetings in Shenzhen this month and Miami next month. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said Trump may resist greater pressure for confrontation and continue pursuing “strategic stability.” Democrats are also expected to prioritize removing Trump’s tariffs as part of a broader focus on domestic inflation.

Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Democrats could push U.S. China policy in a more hawkish direction through hearings and legislation, especially on economic security and Taiwan. He said such efforts would be limited by the executive branch’s latitude and China’s growing power and leverage. China’s dominance in rare earths has provided Beijing leverage in trade discussions with the United States and the European Union.

George Chen of The Asia Group described Taiwan as the most dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations and said a Democratic Congress was most likely to challenge Beijing there. Stability surrounding Taiwan has become more important in the artificial intelligence race because the island is home to TSMC, which makes many of Nvidia’s chips. Chen said a broader Washington consensus holds that U.S. technological leadership should not strengthen China’s military or strategic capabilities, making technology a potential source of friction even if Trump and Xi maintain cordial summit diplomacy.