Arabic version: خبراء يشككون في توقعات موثوقية الكهرباء في أستراليا

According to ABC News, energy experts are concerned that Australia’s future power reliability assessments include projects that may not be built on time, or at all, potentially obscuring supply risks during the energy transition.

Australia’s reliability standard requires consumers’ electricity needs to be met 99.998 per cent of the time, equivalent to no more than 0.002 per cent, or 10 minutes, of demand going unserved over a year. The standard does not cover outages on the poles-and-wires network, which are more common than shortages of energy supply.

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s electricity statement of opportunities is intended to identify likely supply gaps over the coming decade and signal where new projects could help maintain reliability. University of New South Wales researcher Dylan McConnell said the outlook may be downplaying significant risks, with delayed or missing generation and storage potentially leading to higher wholesale prices and costly emergency measures.

Green Energy Markets’ Tristan Edis said AEMO has, since 2023, included “anticipated” projects in central assessments. Such projects must satisfy at least three of five criteria covering land, contracts, planning, finance and construction. Edis said that threshold did not guarantee projects would proceed. Analyst Paul McArdle also questioned the weighting given to government schemes and actionable projects, particularly where developments lack long-term sales deals needed for financing.

McConnell said rising construction costs, especially for wind farms, had left some projects supported through the capacity investment scheme in limbo. He also questioned reliance on Snowy 2.0 being available from late 2028. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s spokesman said the minister had confidence in AEMO, and that its latest outlook identified no reliability gaps in 2027-28 or 2029-30 while stressing the need for continued investment and timely delivery.