Arabic version: توقعات بإبقاء الاحتياطي الفيدرالي على أسعار الفائدة وسط تساؤلات حول التضخم أمام وورش

According to Cnbc, markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision Wednesday, following September’s quarter-percentage-point increase.

Attention will focus on Chairman Kevin Warsh and any indication of future policy. Warsh has sought to move the Fed away from forward guidance, preferring markets to draw conclusions from incoming data. Deutsche Bank senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said recent inflation data could reinforce expectations that further tightening will be needed over time, while an October pause would allow officials to assess trends.

Inflation data has remained elevated. The consumer price index showed an annual rate of 3.7% in September, largely driven by energy prices. Core CPI, excluding gas and groceries, stood at 2.6%, above the Fed’s 2% mandate after rising 0.3 percentage points from August.

Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha said the strategy carries a “material execution risk.” The Fed must weigh persistent inflation against a housing market pressured by mortgage rates above 7% and a labor market marked by low layoffs and difficulty for unemployed people seeking work.

Fed funds futures indicated about a 10% chance of a rate increase this week and better than an 80% probability of a December increase, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Economists remain divided: Citigroup expects inflation to ease, while Mohamed El-Erian said further increases would harm vulnerable sectors including housing and consumer lending.