Arabic version: توقّع بقاء أسعار البنزين مرتفعة قبل يوم الانتخابات

According to Cnbc, gas prices are expected to remain elevated through the Nov. 3 midterm elections, when affordability is seen as one of voters’ top issues. Consumers have faced higher fuel costs since the start of the Iran war.

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi put an 87% chance on the AAA national average for gasoline remaining above $4 per gallon on Election Day. They assigned a 42% chance that the average will be above $4.25. The national average stood at $4.36 per gallon as of Thursday.

Gas prices initially rose in March after the Iran war began and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for Middle Eastern oil exports. The national average peaked at $4.56 per gallon in late May, then declined to $3.79 in early July before climbing again through the rest of the summer.

Diesel prices reached nearly $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 22 and have since fallen to $6.28. Kalshi traders placed 68% odds on diesel remaining above $6 per gallon on Nov. 3. Higher diesel prices particularly affect agriculture-heavy states including Iowa and Kansas, as well as Alaska, which relies on diesel fuel for electricity. All three states have competitive U.S. Senate races this November.

Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 63% chance of taking the Senate from Republican control as fuel costs remain high. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.